摘要
使用中国1958—2017年2419个站点的气温和降水数据,探讨了不同季节两者之间的局地相关关系及其时间和空间变化特征.研究发现,我国气温和降水局地同期相关有着明显的季节差异及年代际变化特征.我国前30年(1958—1987年)、后30年(1988—2017年)四个季节的局地同期相关多以负相关为主,其中秋季表现最弱,夏季最强.与前30年相比,后30年冬、秋季的负相关性增强,春季负相关性下降,站点相关的稳定度较低;夏季负相关性下降,且站点相关的稳定度随区域发生变化.进一步分析发现,冬季在东北区和华东区,夏季在江淮区和东北区存在气温降水同期相关性显著变化区域,Wilcoxon秩和检验结果显示前、后30年冬季东北区气温显著变化,华东区气温和降水均显著变化,而前、后30年夏季东北区气温显著变化,江淮区降水显著变化,从而令这些区域前、后30年冬夏两季的气温降水同期相关性发生年代际转折.
Using the temperature and precipitation data of 2419 stations in China from 1958 to 2017,the local correlation relationship between them in different seasons and their temporal and spatial variation characteristics were explored.The study found that the local contemporaneous correlation of temperature and precipitation in China has obvious seasonal differences and interdecadal variation characteristics.The local contemporaneous correlations of the four seasons in the first 30 years(1958—1987) and the last 30 years(1988—2017) in China are mostly negative correlations,with the weakest in autumn and the strongest in summer.Compared with the previous 30 years,in the next 30 years,the negative correlation in winter and autumn is enhanced,the negative correlation in spring is decreased,and the stability of station correlation is low;the negative correlation in summer is decreased,and the stability of station correlation varies with regions.Further analysis found that in summer,there are areas with significant changes in the correlation between temperature and precipitation over the same period in the Jianghuai region and the Northeast region,while there are similar regions in the Northeast region and East China region in winter.The results of the Wilcoxon rank sum test show that in the winter of the first and last 30 years,the temperature in Northeast China has changed significantly,and the temperature and precipitation in East China have changed significantly,and in the summer of the first and last 30 years,the temperature in the northeast region changed significantly,and the precipitation in the Jianghuai region changed significantly.And these significant changes in temperature and precipitation lead to an interdecadal turning point in the correlation betweentemperature and precipitation in winter and summer int hese regions.
作者
谭希贤
段明铿
TAN XiXian;DUAN MingKeng(School of Atmospheric Science,Nanjing University of Information Engineering,Nanjing 210044,China;Collaborative Innovation Center for Meteorological Disaster Prediction,Early Warning,and Assessment,Nanjing University of Information Engineering/Key Laboratory of Meteorological Disaster Education,Ministry of Education/Joint Laboratory for International Cooperation on Climate and Environmental Change,Nanjing 210044,China)
出处
《地球物理学进展》
CSCD
北大核心
2024年第3期905-915,共11页
Progress in Geophysics
基金
国家自然科学基金项目(41991283)资助。
关键词
气温和降水
气候变化
相关关系
年代际变化
Temperatureand precipitation
Climate change
Correlation
Interdecadal change
