摘要
为探寻危险化学品道路运输事故复杂性机理的研究现状,基于事故风险特征提出了一种新的文献分类方法。该方法分别从复杂性与复杂系统特征、事故致因理论、事故风险演化过程、事故风险耦合后果4个方面对既有的文献进行综合评述。分析认为,近年来危险化学品道路运输事故相关理论和方法的研究发展迅速,其中事故致因理论研究最为成熟,事故风险演化和事故风险耦合研究正逐步成为关注的重点;既有研究大多集中在系统的宏观层面,微观层面研究较少,且风险和能量如何在不同层面进行传递和转化尚未形成完整的理论,也未揭示系统内部风险因子相互作用及演化发展的过程和规律;基于新的分类方法发现,大多数研究采用单目标求解或多目标优化模型,未能充分考虑运输过程动态风险特征和时变效应,基于事故后果和环境污染风险的事故不确定性分析可能是未来的研究热点。
To explore the research status of the complexity mechanism of hazardous chemical road transportation accidents,a new literature classification method based on accident risk characteristics is proposed.This method comprehensively evaluates existing literature from four aspects:complexity and complex system characteristics,accident causation theory,accident risk evolution process,and accident risk coupling consequences.The analysis show that in the past two decades,research related has developed rapidly,with the most mature research on accident causation theory.The evolution of accident risk and the coupling of accident risk are gradually becoming the focus of scholars'attention;Most research focused on the macro level,with relatively little research on the micro level.A complete theory hasn't been formed on how risks and energy are transmitted and transformed at different levels,nor has the process and laws of the interaction and evolution of internal risk factors within the system been revealed;Based on new classification methods,it has been found that most studies use single objective solving or multi-objective optimization models,which fail to fully consider the dynamic risk characteristics and time-varying effects of transportation processes.Accident uncertainty analysis based on accident consequences and environmental pollution risks may be a future hotspot.
作者
骆成
韩东
蒋灶
李聪
孙戬
路亚妮
Luo Cheng;Han Dong;Jiang Zao;Li Cong;Sun Jian;Lu Yani(School of Emergency Management,Xihua University,Sichuan Chengdu 610039,China;Guangdong Huagong Testing and Appraisal Co.,Ltd.,Guangdong Guangzhou 511500,China;School of Civil Engineering,Hubei University of Engineering,Hubei Xiaogan 432000,China)
出处
《消防科学与技术》
CAS
北大核心
2024年第7期919-931,共13页
Fire Science and Technology
基金
国家自然科学基金青年科学基金项目(41907259)
四川省哲学社会科学重点实验室“智慧应急管理重点实验室”开放课题(2023ZHYJGL-10)
西华大学人才引进项目(Z242131)。
关键词
危险化学品
道路运输
事故复杂性
致因理论
风险演化
风险耦合
hazardous chemicals
road transportation
accident complexity
causal theory
risk evolution
risk coupling
