摘要
为提高供热管道事故应急处置能力,防止因应急处置不当而导致的处置效率低下或事故后果扩大,提出一种基于贝叶斯网络的供热管道泄漏事故应急处置分析方法,并用该方法对某地的一起供热管道泄漏事故进行事故情景分析。分析结果显示:利用该方法可以进行正向推理,预测采取相关应急活动后的事故发展方向;进行逆向推理,得出控制事故的关键环节;进行敏感性分析,得出不同阶段不同应急活动对控制事故的影响程度。该事故所采取的应急处置措施不当,应在事故初期准确分析应该采取运行巡检还是关闭阀门检修,以防止事故扩大。
In order to improve the emergency response capability of heating pipeline accidents and prevent the low efficiency of the emergency response or the expansion of the accident consequence caused by the improper emergency response,in this paper,an emergency response analysis method for heating pipeline leakage accidents was proposed based on the Bayesian network,and this method was used to carried out the scene analysis to a heating pipeline leakage accident in a specific location.The analysis results show that this method can carry out the forward reasoning and predict the accident development direction after taking relevant emergency activities;carry out the reverse reasoning and obtain the key links to control the accident;and carry out sensitivity analysis and obtain the impact of different emergency activities on accident control at different stages;and that the emergency measures taken in this accident are inappropriate,and it is supposed to accurately analyze whether to conduct an operational inspection or close the valve for maintenance to prevent the accident from escalating at the early stage of the accident.
作者
韩晶
刘克会
HAN Jing;LIU Kehui(Urban System Engineering Research Institute,Beijing Academy of Science and Technology,Beijing 100089,China)
出处
《安全》
2024年第7期43-49,共7页
Safety & Security
基金
北京市科学技术研究院创新工程课题(24CA004-01)。
关键词
供热管道
泄漏事故
应急处置
贝叶斯网络
heating pipeline
leakage accident
emergency disposal
Bayesian network
