摘要
选取“一带一路”沿线17个省(自治区、直辖市)行政单位作为基本空间单元,核算2000~2021年“一带一路”沿线省域交通碳排放,在利用空间自相关法分析交通碳排放时空分异特征的基础上,结合固定效应回归模型和地理探测器探究交通碳排放影响因素的时空异质性.研究发现:①“一带一路”沿线省域交通碳排放具有显著的空间正相关性,整体呈上升趋势.并且交通碳排放高低值聚类演变在空间上呈现出两极分化的特征,高值聚类区主要分布在开放先行区,低值聚类区主要分布在丝路核心区.②对外开放水平和机动车保有量是交通碳排放的正向驱动因素,能源强度、交通运输结构、行业发展规模和政府干预程度是交通碳排放的负向驱动因素.③能源强度和交通运输结构是交通碳排放空间分异的主要驱动因子,且多数因子在与其他因子空间叠加后会产生非线性增强作用,即驱动因素之间存在较强的协同性.结果表明“一带一路”沿线省域交通碳排放受周边地区影响且影响程度不断加强,同时交通碳排放关键驱动因素之间存在协同作用.因此建议“一带一路”沿线省域充分考虑交通碳排放影响因素的时空异质性特征,制定差异化的交通碳减排政策.
The administrative units of 17 provinces(autonomous regions and municipalities directly under the Central Government)along the"Belt and Road"were selected as basic spatial units to calculate the provincial traffic carbon emissions along the“Belt and Road”from 2000 to 2021.On the basis of analyzing the spatial and temporal characteristics of traffic carbon emissions by using the spatial autocorrelation method,the spatial and temporal heterogeneity of influencing factors of traffic carbon emissions was explored by combining a fixed-effect regression model and geographic detector.The results show that:①The provincial traffic carbon emissions along the"Belt and Road"had significant spatial positive correlation,and the overall trend was upward.Additionally,the cluster evolution of high and low values of traffic carbon emissions presented the characteristics of polarization in space.The high value cluster area was mainly distributed in the open leading area,and the low value cluster area was mainly distributed in the core area of the silk road.②Openingup level and vehicle ownership were the positive driving factors of carbon emissions from transportation,whereas energy intensity,transportation structure,industry development scale,and government intervention were the negative driving factors.③Energy intensity and transportation structure were the main driving factors for the spatial variation of transportation carbon emissions,and most of them would produce nonlinear enhancement when they were spatially superimposed with other factors,that is,there was strong synergy among driving factors.The results showed that the provincial traffic carbon emissions along the"Belt and Road"were affected by the surrounding areas,the influence degree was increasing,and there was synergy between the key driving factors of traffic carbon emissions.Therefore,it is suggested that the provinces along the“Belt and Road”should fully consider the spatial and temporal heterogeneity of traffic carbon emission influencing factors and formulate differentiated traffic carbon emission reduction policies.
作者
赵红星
石璟晶
何瑞春
马昌喜
ZHAO Hong-xing;SHI Jing-jing;HE Rui-chun;MA Chang-xi(School of Traffic and Transportation,Lanzhou Jiaotong University,Lanzhou 730070,China)
出处
《环境科学》
EI
CAS
CSCD
北大核心
2024年第8期4636-4647,共12页
Environmental Science
基金
国家自然科学基金项目(52162041)
兰州市青年科技人才创新项目(2023-QN-125)。
关键词
交通碳排放
时空异质性
地理探测器
影响因素
“一带一路”
transportation carbon emissions
spatio-temporal heterogeneity
geographical detector
influencing factors
the“Belt and Road”
