摘要
【目的】探明影响黔北地区辣椒产量的关键气象因子、关键时段以及气象条件对黔北地区辣椒产量的影响强度,为黔北地区辣椒生产决策、气候影响评估和产量预测提供理论依据。【方法】采用产量分离方法和数理统计对影响黔北地区辣椒产量的关键气象因子、关键时段以及关系进行研究;并以播州区为研究区,研究辣椒气象产量预测模型。【结果】6月的平均气温和最高气温越高,越不利辣椒产量形成;8月下旬至9月中旬的最低气温为产量的限制性因子,最低气温越高则产量越高。在日较差大于8.5℃的情况下,随着日较差的增大,辣椒产量呈缓慢增加趋势。6月下旬的降水量为辣椒生长的水分限制因子,降水量增多则产量增高。4月中旬至5月上旬、6月中旬至下旬的日照时数与气象产量呈负相关。播州区辣椒气象产量预测模型为Y_(w)=-40.836T_(6月中旬至下旬)+40.644T_(8月上旬)-106.159。【结论】黔北地区气象条件对辣椒产量影响程度达±50%左右。不同区域气象条件对辣椒产量影响的关键时段不同,播州区气候条件影响的关键时段在中后期。辣椒生长中期,温度与辣椒产量呈显著负相关;除播州区6月下旬降水量限制辣椒生长外,大部分县市区降水均能满足辣椒生长需要;日照时数对辣椒产量的影响呈前期为正,后期为负。
【Objective】The key meteorological factors,critical periods,and the influence degree of meteorological conditions on hot peppers yield in the northern Guizhou region were explored,which provided a theoretical basis for hot pepper production decisions,climate impact assessment,and yield forecasting in northern Guizhou.【Method】The yield separation method and mathematical statistics were used to study the key meteorological factors,critical periods,and their relationships affecting hot pepper yield in northern Guizhou region.Taking Bozhou District as the research area,the prediction model of meteorological yield of hot pepper was studied.【Result】Higher average and maximum temperatures in June were unfavorable for the formation of hot pepper yield;The minimum temperature from late August to mid-September was the limiting factor for yield,with higher minimum temperatures correlating with higher yields.When the diurnal temperature range exceeds 8.5℃,the pepper yield tended to increase slowly as the diurnal temperature range increases.The amount of precipitation in late June was the moisture limiting factor for hot pepper growth,with more precipitation leading to higher yields.The hours of sunlight from mid-April to early May and from mid-June to late June had negative relationships with meteorological yield.The meteorological prediction model for hot pepper yield in Bozhou district was Y_(w)=-40.836T_(mid-June to late June)+40.644T_(early August)-106.159.【Conclusion】Meteorological conditions in the northern Guizhou region affect hot pepper yields by approximately±50%.The meteorological conditions of different areas have different influence on hot pepper yield through different critical periods.The key period of climate conditions in Bozhou region is in the middle and late period.The temperature during the middle period of pepper growth is significantly negatively correlated with hot pepper yield.Except the precipitation in late June in Bozhou District limiting hot pepper growth,precipitation in many counties and districts meets the water needs for hot pepper growth.The impact of sunshine hours on hot pepper yield is positive at early stage and negative at later stage.
作者
胡家敏
潘岑
于飞
古书鸿
HU Jia-min;PAN Cen;YU Fei;CU Shu-hong(Guizhou Provincial Ecological and Agricultural Meteorological Center,Guiyang 550002,China;Guizhou Key Laboratory of Mountainous Climate and Resources,Guiyang 550002,China;Guizhou Meteorological Service Center,Guiyang 550002,China)
出处
《西南农业学报》
CSCD
北大核心
2024年第6期1322-1328,共7页
Southwest China Journal of Agricultural Sciences
基金
贵州省科技计划项目(黔科合支撑[2022]重点016号)。
关键词
黔北地区
辣椒产量
气象产量
预测模型
Northerm Guizhou
Hot pepper yield
Meteorological yield
Prediction model
