摘要
通过采用县级人民检察院工作报告中手工收集的犯罪数据,并将其与各县的气温波动数据相匹配,构建了一个包含1739个县、涵盖2016年到2019年的面板数据集,检验了气温波动与犯罪率之间的关系。实证结果发现:气温波动对犯罪水平存在显著的不利影响,平均而言,气温波动每上升一个单位,每万人衡量的犯罪率将增加0.655,且这一发现是稳健的。围绕收入和自我心理控制展开的机制检验发现,气温波动主要通过削弱个体的自我控制能力,进而导致犯罪行为的发生。同时,社会文明化程度能够显著削弱气温波动对犯罪的负面影响。因此,通过更加合理地评估气候变化产生的成本,增强各级政府在选择犯罪治理工具时的前瞻性和科学性。
The paper set up a data pool covering 1,739 counties and the period 2016⁃2019 to examine the relationship between crime and temperature fluctuation,by collecting data on crimes manually from work reports of the People's procuratorates of each county in China and analyzing it against the temperature fluctuation data.The findings indicate that temperature fluctuation has an adverse effect on crime.On average,the crime rate by measuring per 10,000 people will raise 0.655 for every unit increase of temperature fluctuation,which is a robust finding.The test around income and psychological self⁃control suggests that temperature fluctuation mainly weakens individual psychological control and leads to committing a crime.Meanwhile,this paper also establishes that social civilization can significantly weaken the negative impact of temperature fluctuation on crime.As a result,the foresight and rationality of governments for choosing crime governance policies can be enhanced by more rationally evaluating the costs of climate change.
作者
金江
叶馨蕊
JIN Jiang;YE Xinrui(South China University of Technology,Guangzhou 510006)
出处
《犯罪研究》
2024年第3期64-78,共15页
Chinese Criminology Review
关键词
犯罪
气温波动
收入
心理控制
crime
temperature fluctuation
income
psychological control
