摘要
解析径流变化与自然、人为因素的响应关系,对流域水资源安全及管理具有重要意义.构建了一个以多元影响因素为输入、以径流为输出的长短期记忆网络(Long Short-Term Memory,LSTM)模型,以建立包括气候变化与人类活动在内的多元影响因子与径流的响应关系,进而分析多元影响因子与径流之间的敏感性与贡献率.以淮河上游为研究区进行实例研究,结果表明:径流对人类影响因素敏感性高于气象因素,对水库塘坝库容具有最高敏感性;突变后各因素平均敏感性增大.气象与人类活动对径流的贡献率分别为55%、45%.其中,水库塘坝库容、降水量、净辐射的变化为径流减少的主导因素.合理的水利工程建设与生态修复布局,对径流调节起到有益作用.研究成果为径流变化规律与成因辨识、流域下垫面保护及水安全保障提供科学参考与决策辅助.
It is essential for basin water security and management to analyze the response relationship between runoff change and natural and human factors.We constructed a LSTM(Long Short-Term Memory)model with multiple factors as input and runoff as output to establish the response relationship between multiple influence factors including climate change and human activities and runoff.Then we analyzed the sensitivity and contribution rate between the multiple influence factors and runoff.We took the upper Huaihe River as a case study.The results show that the runoff sensitivity to human factors is higher than that to meteorological factors,and it has the highest sensitivity to reservoir capacity.The average sensitivity of all factors increased after mutation.The contribution rates of meteorological and human activities to runoff were 55%and 45%respectively.Changes in reservoir capacity,precipitation,and net radiation are the dominant factors in runoff reduction.Reasonable water conservancy project construction and ecological restoration layout will play a beneficial role in runoff regulation.The research results provide scientific reference and decision-making aid for the identification of runoff change rules and causes,the watershed underlying surface protection and water security.
作者
孟钰
徐文静
管新建
严登华
MENG Yu;XU Wenjing;GUAN Xinjian;YAN Denghua(School of Water Conservancy and Transportation,Zhengzhou University,Zhengzhou 450001,China;Yellow River Laboratory,Zhengzhou University,Zhengzhou 450001,China)
出处
《应用基础与工程科学学报》
EI
CSCD
北大核心
2024年第3期801-812,共12页
Journal of Basic Science and Engineering
基金
河南省自然科学基金面上项目(242300421234)
国家自然科学基金项目(51879241)
郑州大学基础培育面上基金(32213979-23)。
