摘要
沙漠地区地质条件复杂,流沙、沙尘暴等自然灾害频繁发生。为有效探究沙漠公路路基工程施工风险,减少风险带来的损失,本文借鉴质量管理中4M1E理论,从人员、机械、材料、技术和环境5个方面,初步识别风险指标,通过问卷调查法进行指标筛选,构建沙漠路基施工风险评价指标体系。将G1法和COWA算子相结合,应用博弈论思想进行组合赋权,采用最优云熵改进可拓云模型并进行案例验证。通过与传统物元模型对比,验证了最优云熵改进可拓云模型的有效性。研究结果可为沙漠地区路基施工风险预防和控制提供参考,有效提高沙漠路基施工水平。
To effectively explore the construction risks of desert highway subgrade engineering,identify the risk sources that affect subgrade construction,and reduce the losses caused by risks.Firstly,drawing on the 4M1E theory in quality management and using literature research methods,combined with the standard specifications for desert roadbed construction,risk indicators were preliminarily identified from five aspects:personnel factors,mechanical factors,material factors,technical factors,and environmental factors.A questionnaire survey method was used to screen the indicators,and 23 secondary indicators were established to construct a desert roadbed construction risk evaluation index system.Then,the subjective weights are determined using the G1 method,the objective weights are determined using the COWA operator,and the game theory ideas are applied to combine the subjective and objective weights to determine the final weights of the indicators.Finally,by using the optimal cloud entropy to improve the extensible cloud model,based on relevant literature and the Construction Project Management Specification,the risk level of roadbed construction is divided into five risk levels,namely U=(low risk,medium low risk,medium risk,medium high risk,high risk),and a case study is conducted on the first contract section of the S254 line from Yuli to the end of the Xinjiang Wuwei Highway Package PPP Project.The project is located in the southern part of Xinjiang Uygur Autonomous Region,and the route passes through the hinterland of the Taklamakan Desert,with a large section of it dominated by desert.The project area has a typical continental desert climate,with strong winds,sandstorms,and floating dust weather in spring,high temperatures and dryness in summer,rapid temperature drops in autumn,large diurnal temperature differences,and less snow and dry cold in winter.The research results indicate that the construction risk level of the desert highway subgrade project is level Ⅱ,belonging to medium to low risk.The risk level of personnel and technical factors in the first level indicators is level Ⅱ,medium to low risk,environmental factors are level Ⅲ,medium risk,and all other indicators are level Ⅰ low risk,consistent with the actual construction situation.Based on the evaluation results,corresponding measures should be taken to effectively reduce the construction risks of roadbed engineering in desert areas,such as improving the professional quality of construction workers,doing a good job in sand prevention and fixation,and strengthening weather prediction.By comparing with traditional matter element models,the effectiveness of the optimal cloud entropy improved extension cloud model was verified.The evaluation results obtained through the optimal cloud entropy algorithm have significantly improved compared to the"3En"cloud entropy extension cloud model and the"50% correlation"extension cloud model.The improved extension cloud model using the optimal cloud entropy takes into account the cloud correlation characteristics calculated by the above two models,achieving the calculation of comprehensive cloud correlation with the highest credibility.The research results of this article can provide reference for the prevention and control of roadbed construction risks in other desert areas.The risk assessment index system for desert roadbed construction should be deleted and supplemented according to the actual situation of the project,aiming to effectively improve the construction level and engineering quality of desert highway roadbed engineering.
作者
单汇
罗桢
王首绪
Shan Hui;Luo Zhen;Wang Shouxu(School of Traffic and Transportation Engineering,Changsha University of Science&Technology,Changsha 410114,China;School of Management,Hunan University of Information Technology,Changsha 410151,China)
基金
湖南交通科技进步与创新项目(201330)。
关键词
沙漠公路
路基工程
施工风险
最优云熵
可拓云模型
desert highway
subgrade engineering
construction risk
optimal cloud entropy
improved extension cloud
