摘要
文章理论阐释全方位夯实粮食安全根基的政策涵义,构建四维度34个指标的粮食安全根基综合评价指标体系。基于2011—2021年时间序列数据,文章采用牛顿第二定律、灰色关联度等模型,揭示各指标对粮食安全根基的驱动力强弱,测度各指标与粮食安全根基的关联程度及关键指标的变化趋势。研究发现,在夯实粮食安全根基的驱动力作用下,耕地保护和科技支撑起到正向作用,党政同责夯实的作用呈波动趋势,而种粮收益则表现为负向作用。应稳定党政同责保障粮食安全的作用,逐步将支持的重点转向农业科技进步,通过科技支撑带动耕地保护程度和种粮收益水平持续提高。我国粮食安全根基综合指数呈“W”形变动,但科技支撑指数呈现的复杂趋势和种粮收益指数相对稳定在较低水平的态势要引起重视。未来耕地质量和科技支撑对粮食安全的作用将不断增强,要重点防范耕地数量逐渐减少和“谁来种粮”问题带来的粮食安全风险。
Theoretical interpretation of the policy implications for comprehensively consolidat-ing the foundation of food security,and the construction of a comprehensive evaluation index system for the foundation of food security with 34 indicators in four dimensions.Based on the time series data of 2011-2021,Newton's second law thought,entropy weight method,grey relational model and other methods are used to reveal the direction of the role of each indicator on the foundation of food security,measure the degree of correlation between each indicator and the foundation of food security,and predict the trend of key indicators.Research has found that in terms of driving forces for consolidating the foundation of food security,farmland protection and technological support play a positive role,while the role of party and government joint re-sponsibility in consolidating is fluctuating,while the income from grain cultivation shows a negative effect.While stabilizing the role of the Party and government in ensuring food security,the focus of support should gradually shift towards agricultural scientific and technological pro-gress,and through technological support,drive the continuous improvement of farmland pro-tection effectiveness and grain yield levels.The overall trend of the comprehensive index of China's food security foundation shows a"W"-shaped change,but the complex trend of the technology support index and the relatively stable trend of the grain yield index at a relatively low level should be taken seriously.The role of farmland quality and technological support in ensuring food security will continue to strengthen in the future,and it is necessary to focus on preventing food security risks caused by the gradual reduction of farmland quantity and the problem of"who will grow grain".
作者
王可山
孙铭雨
刘基伟
李群
Wang Keshan;Sun Mingyu;Liu Jiwei;Li Qun(School of Economics,Beijing WuZi University,Beijing 101126,China;School of Applied Economics,University of Chinese Academy of Social Sciences,Beijing 102488,China;Research Center for Xi Jinping's Economic Thought,University of the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences,Beijing 102488,China)
出处
《南开经济研究》
CSSCI
北大核心
2024年第6期21-36,共16页
Nankai Economic Studies
基金
国家社会科学基金重点项目“我国粮食数量质量双安全的风险测度与协同共治机制研究”(22AGL026)
北京市社会科学基金项目“粮食安全视域下北京市居民餐饮浪费调查与干预机制研究”(23GLA010)
中国社会科学院经济大数据与政策评估实验室(2024SYZH004)的资助。
关键词
粮食安全
农业科技进步
耕地保护
种粮收益
动量化分析
Food Security
Agricultural Scientific and Technological Progress
Farml and Protection
Grain Production Income
Dynamic Quantification Analysis
