摘要
更新的国家自主贡献(NDCs)所描绘的碳减排路径,能够实现《巴黎协定》要求的2℃温控目标,这是全球应对气候变化努力的里程碑。然而,现有文献尚缺乏关于落实更新的NDCs的经济及能源影响效应的研究。有鉴于此,该研究借助全球多区域动态可计算一般均衡模型(GDyn-E),预测并比较了全球共同落实更新的NDCs对中国等主要国家和地区中长期经济增长、能源对外依赖水平的动态影响。研究发现:①中国落实国家自主贡献新目标,亦即“双碳”目标,无论是从相对减排幅度还是绝对减排幅度来看都表现十分优异,将与美、欧等发达经济体共同引领全球碳减排,为全球气候治理做出突出贡献。②全球共同落实更新的NDCs的经济影响呈现出很强的区域异质性,中国经济受到的负面影响较小,到2050年实际GDP损失率为0.27%~1.12%;美国和欧盟也表现出较好的经济韧性,但一些欠发达地区及化石能源净出口国会面临较为严重的经济损失。③化石能源净进口国可收获碳减排与提高能源独立性的协同效益,但化石能源净出口国的出口收入将受损。对于中国来说,得益于化石能源进口减少,可再生能源电力出口增加,中国的能源对外依赖度将在2030年后不断降低;与此同时,非化石能源占比显著提升,化石能源进口来源地也呈现多样化,这都将有助于提高中国整体的能源安全水平。基于上述结论,提出如下建议:中国在落实“双碳”目标进程中,要及时关注并督促各国NDCs履行落实情况,积极提供绿色援助,加强应对气候变化国际合作,同时积极拓展能源贸易伙伴,推动清洁能源贸易的开展。该研究揭示了全球共同落实更新的NDCs对中国等主要国家和地区经济发展、能源对外依赖的重要影响,可为中国在碳达峰碳中和进程中统筹碳减排、经济发展、能源安全,深度参与全球气候治理提供决策参考。
The newly updated nationally determined contributions(NDCs)outline a carbon reduction trajectory capable of achieving the 2℃temperature control target stipulated by the Paris Agreement,marking a milestone in global efforts to combat climate change.However,existing literature lacks research on the economic and energy impact effects of implementing the updated NDCs.In this context,this study utilizes the Global Dynamic Computable General Equilibrium Model(GDyn-E)to predict and compare the dynamic impacts of the global joint implementation of the updated NDCs on medium to long-term economic growth,as well as the level of energy dependence in major countries and regions like China.The findings show that:①China′s implementation of its new NDC targets,namely the‘dual carbon’goals,is outstanding both in terms of relative and absolute emission reductions,positioning it alongside developed economies such as the United States and the European Union to lead global carbon reduction efforts and make significant contributions to global climate governance.②The economic impacts of the global joint implementation of the updated NDCs would demonstrate strong regional heterogeneity.The Chinese economy would experience minimal negative impacts,with an actual GDP loss rate ranging from approximately 0.27% to 1.12% by 2050.The United States and the European Union would also display good economic resilience,but less developed regions and net fossil energy exporting countries would face more severe economic losses.③Net fossil energy-importing countries could reap the synergistic benefits of carbon reduction and enhanced energy independence,but net fossil fuel-exporting countries would see a decline in export revenues.Due to reduced fossil energy imports and increased exports of renewable electricity,China′s energy external dependence would continuously decrease after 2030.Simultaneously,the share of non-fossil energy would increase significantly,and the diversification of fossil energy import sources would help enhance China′s overall energy security.This study points out that,in the process of implementing the‘dual carbon’goals,China should timely observe and urge the fulfillment of NDCs by all countries,actively provide green aid,strengthen international cooperation on climate change,and expand energy trading partners to promote the development of clean energy trade.The study reveals the significant impacts of the global joint implementation of the updated NDCs on the economic development and energy external dependence of major countries and regions like China,providing policy guidance for China in coordinating carbon reduction,economic development,and energy security while deeply engaging in global climate governance.
作者
张庆勇
毛显强
陈星
张士宁
ZHANG Qingyong;MAO Xianqiang;CHEN Xing;ZHANG Shining(School of Environment,Beijing Normal University,Beijing 100875,China;Center for Global Environmental Policy,Beijing Normal University,Beijing 100875,China;Global Energy Interconnection Development and Cooperation Organization,Beijing 100031,China)
出处
《中国人口·资源与环境》
CSSCI
CSCD
北大核心
2024年第7期14-24,共11页
China Population,Resources and Environment
基金
国家社会科学基金重点项目“统筹推进碳达峰碳中和与社会经济协同发展”(批准号:23AZD064)
国家自然科学基金面上项目“全球贸易链-产业链-价值链-环境链‘四链’融合的环境与经济耦合效应及调控策略研究”(批准号:42071270)。
关键词
国家自主贡献
GDyn-E模型
碳减排
经济增长
能源对外依赖
nationally determined contribution
GDyn‑E model
emission reduction
economic growth
energy external dependence
