摘要
铁路隧道工程勘察设计阶段工作对整个工程的全生命周期质量具有重要影响。然而,山区地质条件复杂、自然灾害频发等特点给铁路隧道勘察设计带来极大挑战,而且铁路工程质量风险构成复杂,风险事件的发生通常是多风险耦合作用的结果。目前关于铁路隧道的研究多聚焦于隧道的关键技术、施工安全、绿色性能等方面,鲜有立足勘察设计阶段的山区铁路隧道质量风险耦合研究。为从勘察设计阶段提高隧道工程质量目标的成效,提出基于突变理论的质量风险耦合效应分析模型。首先从内部诱因(人员、技术、管理)和外部诱因(地质、社会、自然)2个维度辨识影响复杂山区铁路隧道勘察设计的质量风险源,并结合改进重要性-绩效分析法(IPA)对风险因子进行层级归类;其次分析多风险因素耦合的形成机理,基于突变理论从耦合度和稳定性2个方面分析铁路隧道勘察设计工程质量风险耦合效应,并构建尖点突变模型进行风险耦合路径演化分析;最后以某复杂山区铁路隧道为例,利用提出的方法进行验证,确定其风险耦合等级为Ⅲ级,存在高风险的耦合程度,质量风险需要警惕,但整体系统处于稳定状态。该研究可以为复杂山区铁路隧道勘察设计工程质量风险决策提供理论支撑。
The work during the survey and design phase of railway tunnel engineering has a significant impact on the overall lifecycle quality of the project.However,the complex geological conditions and frequent natural disasters in mountainous areas pose great challenges to the survey and design of railway tunnels.Moreover,the quality risks of railway engineering are complex,and the occurrence of risk events is usually the result of the coupling of multiple risks.Current research on railway tunnels mostly focuses on key technologies,construction safety,and green performance,with few studies based on the survey and design stages of mountainous railway tunnels regarding quality risk coupling.To improve the effectiveness of quality objectives in tunnel engineering from the survey and design stages,a quality risk coupling effect analysis model based on catastrophe theory was proposed.This research first identified the sources of quality risk in complex mountainous railway tunnels from both internal(personnel,technology,management)and external(geological,social,natural)dimensions and categorized risk factors by using improved Importance-Performance Analysis(IPA).Then,this research study analyzed the formation mechanism of multi-risk factor coupling and assessed the coupling effects of quality risk in railway tunnel survey and design based on catastrophe theory in terms of degree and stability,constructed a cusp catastrophe model for evolutionary analysis of risk coupling paths.Finally,by taking a complex mountainous railway tunnel as an example,the proposed method was validated,and its risk coupling level was determined to be Level III,indicating a high degree of risk coupling that requires vigilance but maintains overall system stability.This research provides theoretical support for decision-making in engineering quality risk management for complex mountainous railway tunnel survey and design.
作者
王晨
王卫东
李艳鸽
WANG Chen;WANG Weidong;LI Yange(School of Civil Engineering,Central South University,Changsha 410075,China;National Railway Administration of the People’s Republic of China,Beijing 100891,China)
出处
《铁道科学与工程学报》
EI
CAS
CSCD
北大核心
2024年第8期3335-3346,共12页
Journal of Railway Science and Engineering
基金
湖南省自然科学基金资助项目(2022JJ30700)
中南大学创新驱动项目(2023CXQD033)。
