摘要
直觉上,智能制造的“机器换人”效应会导致劳动收入份额下降,事实真的如此吗?本文基于两部门一般均衡模型的理论机制分析发现,智能制造对劳动收入份额的影响取决于制造业内部智能制造与传统生产方式的替代弹性,在两种生产方式替代弹性较大的条件下,智能制造将驱动就业结构服务化转型,使劳动力由制造业向服务业转移,导致经济系统整体的劳动收入份额上升。进一步将国际机器人联合会、佩恩表和世界银行的跨国数据匹配后进行实证分析发现,智能制造提升了劳动收入份额,在考虑内生性问题和替换解释变量的稳健性检验后该结论仍然成立;且按照人均收入水平、人口红利阶段、不同国家类型的异质性分析表明,经济发展程度越高,智能制造提升劳动收入份额的效应越显著。机制检验验证了理论假说,即智能制造导致劳动收入份额提升,一定程度上是通过驱动就业结构服务化转型实现的。本文的研究为探寻兼顾智能化转型和收入分配改善的发展模式提供了思路和启示。
Intuitively,the“machine to person”effect of intelligent manufacturing will lead to a decrease in the share of labor income,is this the case?Based on the theoretical mechanism analysis of the two sector general equilibrium model,this article finds that the impact of intelligent manufacturing on labor income share depends on the substitution elasticity between intelligent manufacturing and traditional production methods within the manufacturing industry;Under the condition of high substitution elasticity between the two production methods,intelligent manufacturing will drive the service-oriented transformation of employment structure,transfer labor from manufacturing to service industry,and lead to an increase in the overall share of labor income in the economic system.Further empirical analysis by matching cross-border data from the International Federation of Robotics,the Payne Table,and the World Bank revealed that intelligent manufacturing increased the share of labor income.This conclusion still holds true after considering endogeneity issues and robustness tests to replace explanatory variables.According to the heterogeneity analysis of per capita income level,population dividend stage,and different country types,the higher the level of economic development,the more significant the effect of intelligent manufacturing on increasing labor income share.The mechanism test validates the theoretical hypothesis that intelligent manufacturing leads to an increase in the share of labor income,which to some extent drives the realization of the service-oriented transformation of employment structure.This study provides ideas and insights for exploring development models that balance intelligent transformation and improved income distribution.
作者
张凤云
王希元
ZHANG Feng-yun;WANG Xi-yuan(School of Finance and Economics,Anhui University of Science and Technology,Bengbu 233030,Anhui,China;School of Economics,Yunnan University,Kunming 650500,Yunnan,China)
出处
《上海对外经贸大学学报》
CSSCI
北大核心
2024年第5期22-35,共14页
Journal of Shanghai University of International Business and Economics
基金
国家社科基金项目“基于双重资本深化的我国服务业劳动生产率提升路径研究”(项目编号:20CJL025)资助。
关键词
智能制造
就业结构
劳动收入份额
共同富裕
intelligent manufacturing
employment structure
labor income share
