摘要
我国城镇化进入了减速期,未来城镇化水平提升空间有限,在城镇化与投资互为因果的情况下,如何维持合理的城镇化水平和投资率具有重要研究意义。建立城镇化率与投资率的理论模型,选择42个国家1980—2022年的面板数据,并引入杠杆率作为调节变量,研究城镇化率与投资率的关系,结果发现:(1)城镇化率与投资率之间存在显著的倒U型关系,在老龄化国家更为显著;(2)杠杆率是影响城镇化率与投资率之间倒U型关系的调节变量,在低杠杆和高杠杆、政府部门和非金融企业部门都十分显著。进一步提出中国城镇化率的上限在80%左右、投资率的下限在20%左右的政策建议,同时发挥杠杆率的调节作用,推进以人为核心的新型城镇化。
China’s urbanization has entered a period of deceleration,and there is limited room for im-provement of urbanization in the future.In the context of mutual causality between urbanization and investment,it is of great significance to maintain a reasonable level of urbanization and investment rate.This paper establishes a theoretical model for urbanization rate and investment rate,selects panel data of 42 countries from 1980 to 2022,and introduces leverage ratio as a moderating variable to study the relationship between urbanization rate and investment rate.The results show that:(1)there is a significant inverted U-shaped relationship between urbanization rate and investment rate,which is more significant in aging countries.(2)Leverage ratio is a moderating variable that affects the inverted U-shaped relationship between urbanization rate and investment rate,which is significant in both low leverage and high leverage,as well as both government departments and non-financial corporations.Furthermore,it is proposed that the upper limit of Chinas urbanization rate should be around 80%,and the lower limit of investment rate should be around 20%.At the same time,we should exert the regulatory effect of leverage ratio,and promote a new type of urbanization centered around people.
作者
李江涛
王学凯
LI Jiangtao;WANG Xuekai(National Governance Teaching and Research Department,Party School of the Central Committee of C.P.C(National Academy of Governance),Beijing 100089;School of Marxism,Party School of the Central Committee of C.P.C(National Academy of Governance),Beijing 100091,China)
出处
《河北大学学报（哲学社会科学版）》
CSSCI
2024年第5期1-15,共15页
Journal of Hebei University(Philosophy and Social Science)
基金
国家社会科学基金项目“中国式现代化进程中重大经济结构优化研究”(22STA038)。
关键词
城镇化
投资率
杠杆率
城镇化率上限
urbanization
investment rate
leverage ratio
the upper limit of urbanization rate
