摘要
目的了解中国登革热的发病情况和季节分布特征,为登革热监测预警和科学防控提供参考。方法通过国家卫生健康委员会官网、公共卫生科学数据中心收集2012—2021年我国报告的登革热病例数及发病率数据,运用集中度法、圆形分布法探讨登革热的季节分布特征。结果2012—2021年我国累计报告登革热病例92046例,年报告发病率为0.003/10万~3.405/10万,发病呈单峰分布。集中度法分析结果显示,2012—2021年登革热疫情整体M值为0.858,提示登革热发病总体有很强的季节性,其中2021年登革热的季节性不明显或较弱(M=0.130),2014年登革热有严格的季节性(M=0.937),其他年份登革热有很强的季节性(M=0.700~0.839)。圆形分布法分析结果显示,2012—2021年登革热疫情整体集中趋势r值为0.857,平均角αˉ为266.467°,角标准差s为31.770°(Z=67798.697,P<0.05),流行高峰期为8月24日—10月27日,发病高峰日为9月25日。结论中国登革热发病具有较强的季节性特征,流行高峰主要在秋季,应重点关注秋季蚊虫监测和登革热预警工作。
Objective To understand the incidence and seasonal epidemic characteristics of dengue fever in China,so as to provide a reference for dengue fever monitoring,early warning and scientific prevention and control.Methods Data on the number of reported dengue cases and incidence rate in China from 2012 to 2021 were collected through the official website of the National Health Commission and the Data-Center of China Public Health Science.The seasonal distribution characteristics of dengue were observed using concentration and circular distribution methods.Results In total,92046 cases of dengue fever were reported in China from 2012 to 2021,and the annual reported incidence ranged in between 0.003/100000 and 3.405/100000.Dengue fever prevailed in unimodal distribution fashion.The results of concentration analysis showed that the overall M value was 0.858 from 2012 through 2021,indicating that the incidence of dengue fever was highly seasonal.The seasonality of dengue fever was not significant or weak in 2021(M=0.130),whereas in 2014,dengue fever looked strongly seasonal(M=0.937),and appeared obvious seasonality in other years(M=0.700-0.839).The circular distribution method showed that the r value,α-value and s value were 0.857,266.467°and 31.770°,respectively(Z=67798.697,P<0.05).The epidemic peaked between August 24 and October 27,and the peak day was at September 25.Conclusion The incidence of dengue fever in China has strong seasonal characteristics,with the peak of the epidemic arriving at autumn.The findings suggest that attention should be paid to surveillance over the mosquitos and dengue fever alerts in autumn.
作者
高桂玲
王超
姚春霞
GAO Guiling;WANG Chao;YAO Chunxia(Shanghai Songjiang District Center for Disease Control and Prevention,Shanghai 200032,China)
出处
《热带病与寄生虫学》
CAS
2024年第4期208-211,共4页
Journal of Tropical Diseases and Parasitology
关键词
登革热
季节特征
集中度法
圆形分布法
Dengue fever
Seasonality
Concentration method
Circular distribution method
