摘要
【目的】中国珍稀濒危柏科树种是国家重点保护野生植物,预测其在中国未来不同气候情景的潜在适生区分布,以期对树种的管理和保护提供科学依据。【方法】基于13个树种的地理分布信息及37个环境因子数据,利用R语言优化后的最大熵模型(MaxEnt),分析影响其潜在适生区分布的主导环境因子及在气候变化下的响应方式。【结果】1)MaxEnt模型优化后,各树种的AUC值均大于0.9,说明模型预测精度极好;2)13个树种分布范围较为狭窄,除朝鲜崖柏主要分布在东北长白山地区,其余树种主要分布在秦岭-淮河以南地区;3)影响树种分布的主导环境因子依次为:最干月降水量(BIO14,PC=35%)>温度年较差(BIO7,PC=17.1%)>海拔(ALT,PC=9.2%)>等温性(BIO3,PC=8.5%)>坡度(SLO,PC=7.2%)>最冷月最低温(BIO6,PC=5.3%);4)未来气候情景下,随着碳排放浓度增加,巨柏、西藏柏木、翠柏、台湾杉及越南黄金柏总适生区面积呈扩增趋势;水松、崖柏、岩生翠柏、红桧、福建柏、朝鲜崖柏总适生区面积呈缩减趋势;而水杉和岷江柏木在不同气候情景下总适生区面积呈现不同扩增及缩减趋势。【结论】优化后的MaxEnt模型,很好地模拟出珍稀濒危柏科树种对气候变化的响应,各树种的适生区分布多呈不连续分布,建议扩宽其适生区范围,加强对其生境的保护。
【Objective】The rare and endangered species of Cupressaceae in China are the key wild plants under national protection.To predict their potential distribution in different climate scenarios in China in the future,we hope to provide scientific basis for the management and protection of the species.【Method】Based on the geographic distribution information of 13 tree species and 37 environmental factors data,the MaxEnt model optimized by R language was used to analyze the dominant environmental factors affecting the distribution of their potential habitat areas and their responses under climate change.【Result】1)After the optimization of MaxEnt model,the AUC values of each tree species were all greater than 0.9,indicating that the prediction accuracy of the model was excellent.2)The distribution range of the 13 tree species were relatively narrow,except for the Thuja koraiensis mainly distributed in the northeast Changbai Mountain area,the other tree species mainly distributed in the Qinling Mountains and Huaihe River south area.3)The key environmental factors affecting the distribution of tree species were:precipitation of the driest month(BIO14,PC=35%)>temperature annual range(BIO7,PC=17.1%)>altitude(ALT,PC=9.2%)>isothermality(BIO3,PC=8.5%)>slope(SLO,PC=7.2%)>minimum temperature of the coldest month(BIO6,PC=5.3%).4)Under the future climate scenario,with the increase of carbon emission concentration,the total habitat area of Cupressus gigantea,Cupressus torulosa,Calocedrus macrolepis,Taiwania cryptomerioides and Xanthocyparis vietnamensis would show expanding trends.The total suitable areas of Glyptostrobus pensilis,Thuja sutchuenensis,Calocedrus rupestris,Chamaecyparis formosensis,Fokienia hodginsii and Thuja koraiensis would show decreasing trends.The total suitable area of Metasequoia glyptostroboides and Cupressus chengiana would show different expanding and decreasing trends under different climate scenarios.【Conclusion】The optimized MaxEnt model could well simulate the response of rare and endangered Cupressaceae species to climate change,and the distribution of suitable areas of each species was mostly discontinuous.It is suggested to expand the range of suitable areas and strengthen the protection of their habitats.
作者
唐继敏
殷晓洁
高伟杰
刘一飞
李子康
TANG Jimin;YIN Xiaojie;GAO Weijie;LIU Yifei;LI Zikang(Forestry College,Southwest Forestry University,Kunming 650224,Yunnan,China)
出处
《中南林业科技大学学报》
CAS
CSCD
北大核心
2024年第8期49-61,共13页
Journal of Central South University of Forestry & Technology
基金
国家自然科学基金项目(31700467)
西南林业大学博士科研启动基金项目(112003)
云南省基础研究专项省基金项目(202401AT070294)。
关键词
珍稀濒危
柏科
优化最大熵模型
气候变化
rare and endangered
Cupressaceae
pptimizing MaxEnt model
climate change
