摘要
全球变暖大背景下,长江流域未来气候将发生显著改变,亟需综合全面地评估长江流域未来气候变化特征。基于观测资料和全球气候模式预估结果,并结合Mann-Kendall趋势检验方法和陆面水分平衡收支方法,分析长江流域未来气温、降雨和径流的时空变化特征。研究表明,随着温室气体的不断上升,长江流域2025—2100年期间的年均气温增幅为0.23℃/10a(SSP2-4.5)和0.32℃/10a(SSP5-8.5),温度的上升区域主要分布在长江流域南部地区。大气水汽含量的增加,使得未来长江流域的降雨为增加趋势且随着辐射水平的上升增加幅度越大。降雨的增加通过了Mann-Kendall趋势检验95%显著性水平,每10 a增幅达1.32 mm/月(SSP2-4.5)和2.52 mm/月(SSP5-8.5)。长江流域降雨的显著增加使得未来流域内的年径流量在温室气体浓度路径下也为增加趋势,每10 a变化幅度分别为1 371 m^(3)/s(宜昌站)、827 m^(3)/s(汉口站)和332 m^(3)/s(大通站),对流域内防洪、抗旱、航运、灌溉和生态需水等带来了研究的挑战。
Against the backdrop of global warming,the future climate of the Yangtze River Basin will undergo significant changes,and it is urgent to comprehensively evaluate the characteristics of future climate change in the Yangtze River Basin.This article analyzed the spatio-temporal variation characteristics of future temperature,rainfall,and runoff in the Yangtze River Basin based on observational data and global climate model prediction results,combined with the Mann-Kendall trend test method and land surface water balance budget method.The research has shown that with the continuous rise of greenhouse gases,the annual average temperature will rise by 0.23°C/10a(SSP2-4.5)and 0.32°C/10a(SSP5-8.5)from 2025 to 2100.Regions with elevated temperatures are mainly distributed in the southern part of the Yangtze River Basin.With the increase in the water vapor content in the atmosphere,the future rainfall in the Yangtze River Basin shows an increasing trend and increases significantly with the increase in radiation level.The increase in rainfall passes the 95%significance level of the Mann-Kendall trend test,and the annual increase is 1.32 mm/(month·10a)(SSP2-4.5)and 2.52 mm/(month·10a)(SSP5-8.5).The significant increase in rainfall in the Yangtze River Basin has led to an increasing trend of annual runoff in the future following the greenhouse gas concentration pathway,and the annual variation ranges are 1371 m^(3)/(s·10a)(Yichang Station),827 m^(3)/(s·10a)(Hankou Station),and 332 m^(3)/(s·10a)(Datong Station),respectively,posing challenges for research on flood control,drought resistance,navigation,irrigation,and ecological water demand in the basin.
作者
王超
李浩
叶秀辉
荣钦彪
WANG Chao;LI Hao;YE Xiuhui;RONG Qinbiao(Shuifa Planning and Design Co.,Ltd.,Jinan 250000,China;Soil and Water Conservation Monitoring Center of Pearl River Basin,Guangzhou 510610,China;Pearl River Hydraulic Research Institute of Pearl River Water Resources Commission,Guangzhou 510610,China;College of Environmental Science and Engineering,Taiyuan University of Technology,Taiyuan 030000,China)
出处
《人民珠江》
2024年第9期11-18,共8页
Pearl River
基金
国家重点研发计划项目(2022YFF1302902)。
关键词
降雨
温度
气候变化
CMIP6
长江
rainfall
temperature
climate change
CMIP6
Yangtze River
