摘要
为分析玉溪烤烟在旺长期和成熟期阴雨寡照灾害的时空分布特征,选取1990—2019年云南省玉溪市降水量、日照时数等气象资料,结合灾害等级指标,对烤烟旺长期和成熟期阴雨寡照的年平均次数、过程平均天数、发生频率与覆盖范围的变化特征进行分析,并基于气候倾向率和Mann-Kendall检验等方法分析灾害发生次数的年际演变。结果表明:时间上,烤烟旺长期和成熟期阴雨寡照灾害的年平均次数呈下降趋势,各等级灾害的发生频率和覆盖范围表现为轻度>中度>重度,成熟期阴雨寡照的覆盖范围高于旺长期;从灾害发生次数的年际演变上看,虽然两个生育期内发生次数均呈下降趋势,但变化趋势并不显著。空间上,阴雨寡照灾害的年平均次数、过程平均天数、发生频率(除成熟期)表现为西南低东北高的特点,成熟期灾害的覆盖范围和程度比旺长期大。旺长期阴雨寡照灾害的年平均次数与发生频率呈显著正相关,成熟期灾害的年平均次数与过程平均天数呈显著正相关。
In order to analyze the spatial and temporal distribution characteristics of overcast and rainy days disasters for Yuxi Flue-cured Tobacco in the vigorous growing period and mature period.The meteorological data(precipitation and sunshine duration)in Yuxi,Yunnan Province,from 1990 to 2019 were selected and the variation characteristics of the average annual number,average days,frequency and scope of overcast and rainy days in the vigorous growing period and mature period of flue-cured tobacco were analyzed combined with disaster grade indexes.Based on climate propensity rate and Mann-Kendall test,the interannual evolution of disaster occurrence was discussed.The results showed that the average annual numbers of overcast and rainy days disasters in the vigorous growing period and mature period of Flue-cured tobacco exhibited a decreasing trend.The frequency and coverage of disasters in each grade showed mild>moderate>severe,and the coverage of overcast and rainy days disasters in the mature period was higher than that of the vigorous growing period.Although the frequency of disasters showed a decreasing trend in both growth periods,the variation trend was not significant.Spatially,the average annual numbers,average days and frequency(except for the mature period)of overcast and rainy days disaster showed lower values in southwest and higher values in northeast,and the coverage and extent in the mature period was greater than that in the vigorous growing period.The average annual numbers of overcast and rainy days in the vigorous growing period significantly and positively correlated with the frequency of occurrence,and the average annual numbers of disasters in the mature period significantly and positively correlated with the average days.
作者
李玉聪
乌尔娜
景元书
冉楚钰
Li Yucong;Wu Erna;Jing Yuanshu;Ran Chuyu(Jiangsu Provincial Key Laboratory of Agrometeorology,Nanjing 210044,China;College of Applied Meteorology,Nanjing University of Information Science&Technology,Nanjing 210044,China;Weather Modification Office of Xinjiang Uygur Autonomous Region,Xinjiang 830002,China;Xinjiang Weather Modification Engineering Technology Research Center,Xinjiang 830002,China)
出处
《气象与减灾研究》
2024年第2期137-147,共11页
Meteorology and Disaster Reduction Research
基金
国家自然科学基金项目(编号:41575111)
红塔烟草集团有限责任公司项目(编号:S-6019001).
关键词
烤烟
阴雨寡照
旺长期
成熟期
flue-cured tobacco
overcast and rainy days
vigorous growing period
mature period
