摘要
文章基于2000—2022年淮河流域35个地级市面板数据,在分析气候典型特征和博弈交叉效率测度粮食生产用水绿色效率的基础上,运用时空地理加权回归模型(GTWR)实证检验了气候变化对粮食生产用水绿色效率的影响及时空分异。研究发现:①淮河流域气候具有年际分布不均与空间异质的典型特征。②淮河流域粮食生产用水绿色效率呈波动上升趋势,存在区域交错分布又具显著空间集聚性的特征。③年度气候对粮食生产用水绿色效率的影响存在时空异质性。总体上,年均气温对粮食生产用水绿色效率呈显著负向影响,年日照时长与年降水量呈显著正向影响。④极端气候对粮食生产用水绿色效率有显著抑制作用,极端气候事件风险存在地区差异。据此,提出应建立健全气候变化预警机制,促进水资源管理极端气候应急机制建设,完善农业保险体系,并加强财政和科技支撑,以应对气候变化对粮食生产带来的挑战。
Based on the panel data of 35 prefecture-level cities in Huaihe River basin from 2000 to 2022,this study measures the green efficiency of water use for grain production according to typical climate characteristics and the game cross-efficiency method,and empirically tests the impact of climate change on the green efficiency of water use for grain production and its spatiotemporal differentiation using the geographically weighted regression model.The study shows that:1)The climate of Huaihe River basin has typical characteristics of uneven interannual distribution and spatial heterogeneity.2)The green efficiency of water for food production in the Huaihe River basin shows a fluctuating upward trend,which is characterized by staggered distribution and significant spatial agglomeration.3)The influence of annual climate on the green efficiency of water for food production is spatially and temporally heterogeneous.Overall,the annual average temperature has a significant negative effect on the green efficiency of water for food production,while the annual sunshine duration and annual precipitation have a significant positive effect.4)Climate extremes have a significant inhibitory effect on the green efficiency of water for food production,and there are regional differences in the risk of extreme climate events.It is recommended to establish a sound early warning mechanism for climate change,promote the construction of extreme climate emergency response mechanism for water resources management,improve the agricultural insurance system,and strengthen financial and scientific and technological support in order to cope with the challenges of climate change on food production.
作者
江激宇
刘嘉铭
赵勇
张士云
JIANG Jiyu;LIU Jiaming;ZHAO Yong;ZHANG Shiyun(School of Economics and Management,Anhui Agricultural University,Hefei 230036,Anhui,China)
出处
《经济地理》
CSSCI
CSCD
北大核心
2024年第8期181-190,共10页
Economic Geography
基金
中国工程院战略研究与咨询项目(2022-07)。
关键词
气候变化
粮食生产
用水绿色效率
博弈交叉
极端气候
应急机制
农业保险
climate change
food production
water use green efficiency
game crossover
extreme climate
emergency response mechanism
agricultural insurance
