地下空间坍塌应急救援现场环境安全风险评价及预测

Assessment and prediction of environmental safety risk at the site of emergency rescue for underground space collapse

下载PDF

导出

摘要为保障地下空间坍塌应急救援现场救援行动的安全开展和设备的正常运转,提高应急救援安全保障能力,首先通过构建地下空间坍塌应急救援现场环境安全风险评价指标体系,结合层次分析法(AHP)和理想点法(TOPSIS),对现场环境的安全状态进行评价;然后结合自回归移动平均模型(ARMA)和指数平滑模型,对未来一定时间内现场环境的安全状态进行预测;最后将该评价及预测模型应用于某煤矿巷道救援案例,并对救援工作提出建议和改进方案。研究结果可为地下空间应急救援现场的安全防护系统、通风设施配置等提供数据及决策依据。 To ensure the safety of emergency rescue operations and the normal functioning of equipment in underground space collapse incidents, and to enhance the safety assurance capabilities of emergency rescue operations, it is pivotal to first establish an environmental safety risk assessment indicator system for underground space collapse emergency rescue scenes. By integrating the analytic hierarchy process(AHP) and the technique for order preference by similarity to an ideal solution(TOPSIS) method, the safety status of the on-site environment can be evaluated. Subsequently, combining the autoregressive moving average(ARMA) and exponential smoothing models, the future safety status of the site environment within a certain period can be forecasted. Ultimately, the assessment and prediction models are applied to a rescue case in a coal mine drilling site, with recommendations and improvements proposed for the rescue operation. The research results can provide data and a decision-making basis for the safety protection system and the configuration of ventilation facilities on the emergency rescue sites of underground spaces.

作者谢众智李升连郑惜雯古力张国华倪晓阳 XIE Zhongzhi;LI Shenglian;ZHENG Xiwen;GU Li;ZHANG Guohua;NI Xiaoyang(Faculty of Engineering,China University of Geosciences(Wuhan),Wuhan 430074,China;Yunan Infrastructure Investment Co.,Ltd.,Kunming 650032,China;Key Laboratory of Geological Survey and Evaluation of Ministry of Education,China University of Geosciences(Wuhan),Wuhan 430074,China)

机构地区中国地质大学(武汉)工程学院云南建设基础设施投资股份有限公司中国地质大学(武汉)地质探测与评估教育部重点实验室

出处《安全与环境工程》 CAS CSCD 北大核心 2024年第5期51-61,共11页 Safety and Environmental Engineering

基金国家重点研发计划项目(2022YFC3005904-4)。

关键词地下空间坍塌应急救援现场安全风险评价预测预警层次分析法理想点法自回归移动平均 underground space collapse emergency rescue site safety risk assessment predictive early warning analytic hierarchy process(AHP) technique for order preference by similarity to an ideal solution(TOPSIS) autoregressivemoving average(ARMA)