摘要
绝对贫困消除以后,精准识别易返贫致贫人口是巩固拓展脱贫攻坚成果、实现共同富裕的必要基础。结合绝对贫困人口和弱相对贫困人口的动态转换过程识别易返贫致贫人口,基于包容性增长理论构建“增长-分配-识别-帮扶”四成分分解框架,有助于更好地掌握中国易返贫致贫人口的时空变化及变动原因。运用中国家庭金融调查微观数据的实证研究发现:全国弱相对贫困线逐年攀升,易返贫致贫人口占比由2011年的14.89%上升到2019年的19.94%;其中,农村易返贫致贫人口占比较城市更大、上升速度也更快。在省际差异化弱相对贫困标准下,广东、北京、浙江等经济发达省份由于更高的生活成本及就业压力也会触发返贫致贫现象。易返贫致贫人口变动分解结果显示,除识别成分外,“增长-分配-帮扶”均可降低易返贫致贫人口占比,且帮扶的贡献仅次于增长成分。易返贫致贫人口呈现身体健康状况差、受教育程度低、无住房保障、家庭非农就业率低等特征,地区收入分配不平等也会产生负面影响。由此,应将绝对贫困线与弱相对贫困线相结合来识别易返贫致贫人口,内生发展与外源扶持相结合来缓解易返贫致贫人口占比,从而防止规模性返贫,扎实推进共同富裕。
After the elimination of absolute poverty,it is necessary to identify the people who are prone to poverty in China,so as to consolidate the achievements of poverty alleviation and achieve common prosperity.The absolute poverty line and weak relative poverty line are combined to accurately identify the poverty-prone population.Based on the inclusive growth theory,a four-component decomposition framework of"growth-distribution-identification-assistance"is innovatively constructed to investigate the reasons for the change of poverty-prone population.The empirical study using the micro-data of China's household finance survey shows that:The national weak relative poverty line is increasing year by year,and the poverty-prone population has also increased from 14.89%in 2011 to 19.94%in 2019,among which rural areas are more prone to return to poverty and the rising speed is faster than that of cities.Under the inter-provincial diferential poverty standard,Guangdong,Beijing,Zhejiang and other economically developed provinces having the higher living costs and employment pressures will also trigger the phenomenon of returning to poverty.In addition to identification component,the other three components can reduce the proportion of poverty-prone population,and the contribution of assistance is second only to the growth component.Poverty-prone population has the characteristics of poor health,low education,no housing security and low non-agricultural employment rate.At the same time,the inequality of regional income distribution will inhibit the pro-poor nature of economic growth.Therefore,we can combine the absolute poverty line with the weak relative poverty line to identify the people who are easy to return to poverty,and combine endogenous development with external support to alleviate the proportion of the people who are easy to return to poverty,thus preventing large-scale return to poverty and promoting common prosperity.
作者
杨丹
朱珠
刘生龙
YANG Dan;ZHU Zhu;LIU Shenglong
出处
《学习与实践》
CSSCI
北大核心
2024年第9期95-108,共14页
Study and Practice
基金
国家社会科学基金重大项目“实现巩固拓展脱贫攻坚成果同乡村振兴有效衔接研究”(项目编号:21ZDA062)
国家社会科学基金重点项目“乡村振兴视域下脱贫摘帽地区内生发展能力提升的适宜路径与精准政策研究”(项目编号:21AGL029)
西南大学创新研究2035先导计划(项目编号:SWUPilot Plan028)。
关键词
弱相对贫困
易返贫致贫人口
包容性增长
政策帮扶成分
共同富裕
Weak relative poverty
Poverty-prone population
Inclusive growth
Policy assistance effect
Common prosperity
