摘要
开展共享社会经济路径下的国土空间数量结构预测和布局优化有助于揭示未来时期人类活动对自然环境系统的影响。长江经济带横跨中国东、中、西三大区域,经济总量、人口总量占全国比重均超过40%,是国家总体发展格局中生态优先、绿色发展的主战场,也是引领经济高质量发展的主力军。以共享社会经济路径中的SSP1、SSP2和SSP4三类情景参数为基础,采用马尔可夫模型与多目标线性规划方法预测长江经济带2030—2060年的国土空间数量结构,通过动态优化方法模拟不同情景下典型年份的国土空间格局,进而分析国土空间数量结构及其格局演变的趋势特征。结果表明:(1)三类情景下,2030年和2060年长江经济带林地空间占比最高,其次为耕地空间、草地空间及建设用地空间,水域空间与未利用空间占比较小。(2)2030—2060年,三类情景下转出面积占比较大的是建设用地空间、林地空间和耕地空间,转入面积占比较大的则为耕地空间与林地空间。(3)SSP1与SSP4情景下,未来时期的建设用地空间集聚特征显著,耕地空间在长江上游的河谷平原地区呈现减少趋势;SSP2情景下,新增建设用地空间分布则较为分散。研究结果可为长江经济带国土空间优化配置提供参考。
Conducting territorial space quantity structure prediction and layout optimization under the shared socio-economic pathways(SSPs)contributes significantly to revealing the intricate and multifaceted impact that future human activities may exert on natural environment systems.The Yangtze River Economic Belt,stretching across the eastern,central,and western regions of China,encompasses economic and population aggregates that collectively account for more than 40%of the nation′s total.Positioned as the primary battleground within the national development framework,it serves as the linchpin for prioritizing ecological preservation and fostering green development,thereby spearheading the trajectory towards high-quality economic growth.This study is anchored upon three scenario parameters,namely SSP1,SSP2,and SSP4,within the shared socio-economic pathways.Utilizing advanced methodologies such as Markov models and multi-objective linear programming,the research endeavors to forecast the territorial space quantity structure of the Yangtze River Economic Belt spanning from 2030 to 2060,offering invaluable insights into future spatial dynamics and developmental trajectories.Employing dynamic optimization methods,this study meticulously simulates territory space patterns for typical years under various scenarios,providing a comprehensive understanding of their dynamics.Subsequently,it conducts a thorough analysis of the trend characteristics shaping the evolution of territory space quantity structure and its intricate patterns,shedding light on future developmental trajectories and spatial dynamics within the Yangtze River Economic Belt.The results indicate that:(1)Under the three scenarios,the proportion of forest territory space is highest in the Yangtze River Economic Belt in 2030 and 2060,followed by arable territory space,grass territory space,and construction territory space.Water space and unused space have relatively smaller proportions.(2)From 2030 to 2060,the outgoing areas with significant proportions in all three scenarios are construction territory space,forest territory space,and arable territory space.The incoming areas with substantial proportions are arable territory space and forest territory space.(3)Under the SSP1 and SSP4 scenarios,there is a significant concentration of construction territory space in the future,with a noticeable decrease in arable territory space in the river valley plains of the upper reaches of the Yangtze.In the SSP2 scenario,the distribution of newly added construction territory space is more dispersed.The research findings,elucidating the nuanced dynamics of territory space quantity structure and patterns within the Yangtze River Economic Belt,can be instrumental in guiding policymakers and stakeholders towards informed decision-making processes for optimizing and allocating territory space,thereby fostering sustainable development and ecological preservation in the region.
作者
金贵
贺念慈
刘志远
王瑞
张正昱
JIN Gui;HE Nianci;LIU Zhiyuan;WANG Rui;ZHANG Zhengyu(School of Economics and Management,China University of Geosciences,Wuhan 430078,China;School of Public Administration,China University of Geosciences,Wuhan 430074,China)
出处
《生态学报》
CAS
CSCD
北大核心
2024年第18期8084-8093,共10页
Acta Ecologica Sinica
基金
国家自然科学基金项目(71974070)。
关键词
共享社会经济路径(SSP)
国土空间
数量结构
布局模拟
长江经济带
shared socio-economic pathways(SSP)
territory space
quantity structure
layout simulation
Yangtze River Economic Belt
