摘要
人工智能替代人力劳动进行智能化生产进而完成大量繁杂的生产任务不只是技术进步的结果,亦与低生育率导致的劳动力供给结构改变存在紧密关联。文章基于2000~2019年20个国家的面板数据,研究了低生育率背景下人工智能的劳动力替代效应,判断低生育率背景下人工智能与劳动力之间是否存在“互补式替代”抑或“挤出式替代”效应。结果表明,在低生育率背景下,人工智能的发展属于“诱导式技术创新”型发展,生育率降低推动企业引进人工智能来解决劳动力短缺问题,其对人力劳动的替代属于“互补式替代”;低生育率对人工智能发展起到正向推动作用,在平均生育水平较低的亚洲最为明显;人工智能发展与生育率之间存在产业结构门槛效应,制造业占比越高,生产所需劳动力数量越大,低生育率对人工智能发展具有越显著的促进作用;智能化生产可提升劳动生产率,进而缓解生育率低下带来的劳动力短缺对生产活动造成的负向影响,产生正向经济效应;发达国家较发展中国家劳动力短缺更严重,因此,引入智能机器人进行生产可带来更大的经济效益。总的来说,一国或地区是否大力发展智能机器人应充分考虑自身经济发展状况,并结合产业结构与人口变化,衡量人工智能引入生产活动带来的经济效益,避免盲目智能化产生负面影响。如果平衡好这些关系,那么人工智能可作为一国或地区应对“少子化”和“老龄化”问题的有效手段。
Artificial intelligence replaces human labor to carry out intelligent production and complete a large number of complex production tasks is not only the result of technological progress,but also has an important relationship with the change of labor force structure caused by low fertility rate.Based on the panel data of 20 countries from 2000 to 2019,studying the labor substitution effect of artificial intelligence in the context of low fertility rate,and determining whether there is a“complementary substitution”o“r extrusion substitution”effect between artificial intelligence and la⁃bor under the background of low fertility rate.The result shows that the development of artificial intelligence in the con⁃text of low fertility rate belongs to induced technological innovation type development,falling fertility rates have pushed companies to introduce artificial intelligence to solve labor shortages,so its substitution for human labor belongs to com⁃plementary substitution.The positive impact of low fertility rate on artificial intelligence is most evident in Asia which has low average fertility level.The relationship between AI and fertility rate has an industrial structure threshold effect.The higher the proportion of manufacturing,the larger the number of labor required for production,and the more signifi⁃cant the role of fertility in promoting the development of AI.Intelligent production can improve labor productivity and effectively alleviate the negative impact of labor shortages caused by low fertility rate on production activities,and then have a positive economic effect.The labor shortage is worse in developed countries than in development ones.Therefore,the introduction of intelligent robots for production can produce greater economic benefits in developed countries.In general,whether introducing intelligent robots,countries or regions should fully consider their own economic develop⁃ment,combined with industrial structure and population changes,measure the economic benefits brought by the intro⁃duction of AI in production activities,and avoid the negative impact of blind intelligence.If these relationships are bal⁃anced,then artificial intelligence can be an effective means for a country or region to actively address the issues of few⁃er children and aging.
作者
田成诗
刘彦霞
盖美
TIAN Cheng-shi;LIU Yan-xia;GAI Mei(Statistics college of Dongbei University of Finance and Economics College,Dalian Liaoning,116025,China;Liaoning Normal University,Dalian Liaoning,116021,China)
出处
《西北人口》
CSSCI
北大核心
2024年第5期64-75,共12页
Northwest Population Journal
基金
辽宁省社科联项目“辽宁省家庭户结构变化的消费效应及适应性消费潜力释放策略”(2024lslybkt096)
辽宁省社科基金“以县域为载体的辽宁省城镇化研究”(L22BRK002)
国家自然科学基金“陆海统筹视域下海岸带人地系统韧性识别、演化机理与模拟”(42276231)。
关键词
低生育率
人工智能
替代效应
生产力效应
Low Fertility Rate
Artificial Intelligence
Substitution Effect
Productivity Effect
