摘要
实施土地休耕是落实“藏粮于地”战略的关键,目前宏观尺度的全国休耕空间布局尚未确定,该研究探究了粮食安全约束下的全国范围内最大休耕规模以及中国省域休耕空间优化布局。以耕地数量、质量和生态“三位一体”保护为研究视角,该研究通过系统动力学、灰色预测模型等方法构建最大休耕规模预测模型,并结合“压力-状态-响应”模型构建休耕迫切度评价体系,依据评价结果分配各省休耕规模,从而得到中国省域休耕空间布局。结果表明:1)预计在90%、95%、100%的粮食自给率下,到2030年中国最大休耕规模分别为3237.310万、2678.970万和2120.640万hm^(2);2)省域之间的休耕迫切度水平存在差异,上海、内蒙古等地休耕迫切度较高,四川、广西等地休耕迫切度较低;3)在耕地三位一体保护的约束条件下,地区之间休耕规模差异较大,内蒙古、甘肃等地休耕规模较大,北京、上海等地休耕规模较小。该研究将数量、质量和生态多元目标融合进休耕空间分区研究,能够为未来休耕制度的全面建立以及精准落地提供思路与方法参考。
Fallow land can often be implemented under the pattern of cultivated land protection on quantity,quality,and ecology in the strategy of"Storing Grain in Land"in China.The spatial arrangement of fallow land is closely linked to the fallow land implementation and the nationwide allocation of arable land resources.However,the current macro research has hindered to determine the optimal spatial layout of fallow land nationwide in sustainable agriculture at present.The purpose of this study is to explore the maximum scale and spatial layout of provincial fallow in China under the constraint of food security.The primary research subjects were selected as the provinces of China that were excluded from Hong Kong,Macao,and Taiwan.The data was derived from the publicly accessible statistical yearbooks from 2000-2019.Firstly,a numerical model was developed to calculate the fallow land scale under food security guidelines,according to the arable land retention.System dynamics,grey model,time series analysis,and exponential decay model were utilized to scientifically predict the fallow scale in China in the future.Secondly,an evaluation system was established for the urgency of fallowing arable land in Chinese provinces using the Pressure-State-Response(PSR)model,according to the land quality and ecological security.The evaluation index system was comprised of 17 specific indicators.Finally,the fallow scale of each province was allocated to determine the different fallow zones after evaluation.Therefore,a provincial space layout of fallow was established using the"Trinity"protection of quantity,quality,and ecology.The results show that:(1)The maximum fallow scale was expected to be 3237.310×10^(4),2678.970×10^(4),and 2120.640×10^(4) hectares by 2030 under 90%,95%,and 100%grain self-sufficiency rates,respectively.At the same time,it was particularly crucial to reasonably and scientifically calculate the fallow land scale.A comprehensive fallow land system was established to promote nationwide;(2)Provincial urgency assessments show that Shanghai and Inner Mongolia were ranked the highest in the urgency for the fallow land,while Sichuan and Guangxi were ranked the lowest.Strategic allocation of fallow land was prioritized for the regions with the higher levels of urgency;(3)The scale and urgency were combined to assess the fallow land.The maximum scale of fallow land was calculated to be 15.55036 million hectares in 2019,while it was projected to be 20.87778 million hectares by 2030.The areas of each province were categorized into five levels of fallow land.There were significant regional differences in the fallow land scale.Inner Mongolia and Gansu shared the larger scales,compared with Beijing and Shanghai with the smaller ones.This finding can provide the theoretical references and technical support to establish the differentiated fallow system.Some ideas can also be offered to fully establish and effectively implement the fallow system in the future,thus integrating quantitative,qualitative,and ecological multiple objectives into the spatial zoning of fallow land.
作者
熊雯颖
孟菲
陈航
谭永忠
XIONG Wenying;MENG Fei;CHEN Hang;TAN Yongzhong(Department of Land Management,School of Public Affairs,Zhejiang University,Hangzhou 310058,China)
出处
《农业工程学报》
EI
CAS
CSCD
北大核心
2024年第18期240-250,共11页
Transactions of the Chinese Society of Agricultural Engineering
基金
国家自然科学基金项目(42071269)
中央高校基本科研业务费专项资金资助项目(S20240008)
浙江省哲学社会科学规划项目(21WZQH12YB)
国家社会科学基金项目(19FGLB054)。
关键词
休耕规模
休耕空间布局
系统动力学
PSR模型
耕地保护
fallow scale
fallow spatial layout
system dynamics
PSR model
cultivated land protection
