摘要
白花龙Styrax faberi为安息香科Styracaceae安息香属Styrax灌木,现今对白花龙的研究仅集中于繁殖技术、叶片成分及系统演化等方面,而对其地理分布及未来变化趋势的研究报道甚少。本文研究未来气候变化情景下白花龙的潜在适生区可为其野生资源保护及引种提供理论依据。基于本研究组白花龙的标本采集地,以及通过百度地图(https://map.baidu.com)、生物多样性信息网络(https://www.gbif.org)、国家标本平台(http://www.nsii.org.cn/)、中国植物志(http://www.iplant.cn/)、中国数字植物标本馆(https://www.cvh.ac.cn)等获得的地理信息数据,共得到235条可靠的现代分布记录和多重环境变量,通过MaxEnt、ArcGIS并以刀切法、标准差椭圆计算、多元相似度面和最不相似变量等方法,预测在当前(1970—2000年)和未来(2041—2060年)气候变化情景(SSP126和SSP585)下白花龙在中国的潜在分布。结果表明:当前白花龙的高、中度适生区主要集中在我国江西、广东、广西和福建的大部分地区;在2050年气候变化情景下,适宜区面积均将大幅减少,缩减的区域以轻度适宜区为主,预示白花龙在未来的气候环境下,物种的扩张潜力下降,分布中心有向西北高纬度地区迁移的趋势;降水量和温度是制约白花龙分布的主要因素,其中最冷季节降水量(贡献率56.6%)是影响白花龙未来分布的主导因子。
Based on specimen locations of Styrax faberi,235 reliable current distribution records and multiple environmental variables were collected through https://map.baidu.com,https://www.gbif.org,http://www.nsii.org.cn/,http://www.iplant.cn/,https://www.cvh.ac.cn..The potential adaptive regions of S.faberi were predicted by maximum entropy model of MaxEnt and ArcGIS,Jackknife,standard deviation ellipse,multivariate environmental similarity surface and the most dissimilar variable analysis at present and in the future(before 2050)under the future climate scenarios(SSP126 and SSP585)of in China.The result showed that the current high and moderate adaptive regions of S.faberi mainly locate in most areas of Jiangxi,Guangdong,Guangxi and Fujian province in China.In 2050,the areas of adaptive regions under the future climate scenarios would significantly decrease,especially the mild adaptive regions,indicating that the potential of expansion would decline,and there would have a migration to the northwest China with high latitude.The analysis demonstrated that precipitation and temperature was the main factors to influence the distribution of S.faberi,especially the precipitation of the coldest season with 56.6%of contribution rate.
作者
童丽丽
程瑶
许晓岗
王洪超
田露
蒋孝禹
TONG Lili;CHENG Yao;XU Xiaogang;WANG Hongchao;TIAN Lu;JIANG Xiaoyu(School of Horticulture&Landscape Architecture,Jinling Institute of Technology,Nanjing 210038,China;College of Biology and Environment,South Modern Forestry Collaborative Innovation Center,Nanjing Forestry University,Nanjing 210037,China)
出处
《浙江林业科技》
2024年第5期1-8,共8页
Journal of Zhejiang Forestry Science and Technology
基金
江苏省林业科技创新与推广项目(LYKJ﹝2023﹞21)。
关键词
白花龙
气候变化
最大熵模型
潜在分布区
主导因子
Styrax faberi
climate change
MaxEnt model
potential distribution region
dominant factor
