摘要
2009年以来,我国房地产市场通过“高负债、高杠杆、高周转”的旧发展模式获得了十余年的高速发展。文章首先分析了房地产旧发展模式形成的原因,包括经济增长和城镇化带来大量住房需求、支持政策不断推出、房企追求高利润等。随后,文章指出经济增速放缓、人口红利消退、政策调控等因素导致旧模式不可持续,引发房企信用风险频发,并梳理了房地产风险对政府、居民、企业的潜在影响。最后,文章展望了未来房地产市场发展趋势,预计未来几年仍处于深度调整期,商品房销售面积将逐步下降至2030年的9亿m2左右,房企或将探索多元化经营、财务结构优化、精细化运营等新模式,以降低杠杆、丰富收入来源、提升竞争力。
Since 2009,China’s real estate market has achieved over a decade of rapid development through the old development model of“high debt,high leverage,and high turnover”.This article first analyzes the reasons for the formation of the old development model of real estate,including the substantial housing demand driven by economic growth and urbanization,the continuous launch of supportive policies,and the pursuit of high profits by real estate companies.Subsequently,the article points out that factors such as slowing economic growth,diminishing population dividend,and policy regulation have rendered the old model unsustainable,leading to frequent credit risks among real estate companies.It also sorts out the potential impact of real estate risks on the government,residents,and enterprises.Finally,the article looks forward to the future development trends of the real estate market,expecting that the market will still be in a period of deep adjustment for the next few years.The sales area of commercial housing is expected to gradually decrease to about 900 million square meters by 2030.Real estate companies may explore new models such as diversified operations,financial structures optimization,and refined operations to reduce leverage,enrich revenue sources,and enhance competitiveness.
出处
《中国房地产金融》
2024年第5期37-43,共7页
China Real Estate Finance
关键词
房地产风险
发展模式
房地产市场
Real estate risk
development model
real estate market
