摘要
人口老龄化进程加快,社会养老制度不断发展,对生育率产生了重要影响。文章基于2005—2021年省级面板数据,分析人口老龄化、养老保险对生育率的作用及机制。研究发现,养老保险、人口老龄化均在一定程度上抑制了生育水平的提升,且养老保险的抑制作用更为显著;将养老保险和人口老龄化交互后,其对生育率产生了一定的促进作用;异质性分析中,东部地区与西部地区养老保险对生育率的抑制作用高于中部地区,且西部地区人口老龄化的调节效应最为显著。从长远考虑,应将生育与养老保险有效结合,完善基本养老保险制度,发展规模化养老,避免养老对生育资源的挤占,促进人口与社会保障长期均衡发展。
The acceleration of population aging and the continuous development of the social endowment system have an important impact on fertility.Based on the provincial panel data from 2005 to 2021,this paper analyzes the effect and mechanism of population aging and endowment insurance on fertility.The results show that endowment insurance and population aging inhibit the increase of fertility levels to a certain extent,with a more significant inhibition effect of endowment insurance.The interaction between endowment insurance and population aging has a certain positive effect on fertility rates.According to the heterogeneity analysis,the suppression effect of endowment insurance on fertility is higher in the eastern and western regions than in the central region,while the moderating effect of population aging is most significant in the western region.In the long run,we should effectively combine fertility with endowment insurance,improve the basic endowment insurance system,develop large-scale endowment,avoid the crowding-out effect of elderly care on fertility resources,and promote the long-term balanced development of population and social security.
作者
张国海
程蕾
ZHANG Guohai;CHENG Lei(School of Finance and Public Administration,Anhui University of Finance and Economics,Bengbu 233000,China)
出处
《南京医科大学学报（社会科学版）》
2024年第5期457-462,共6页
Journal of Nanjing Medical University（Social Sciences）
基金
安徽高校人文社会科学重点项目“促进共同富裕的养老保险制度优化研究”(SK2021A2074)
安徽财经大学研究生科研创新基金“人口老龄化、养老保险支出与生育率”(ACYC2023085)。
关键词
人口老龄化
生育率
养老保险
population aging
fertility rate
endowment insurance
