摘要
基于1961—2021年黑龙江省松嫩平原32个气象站3—5月逐日降水量数据和同期大气环流、海温指数资料,以最长连续无降水日数(LCDD)作为表征春季极端干旱的指标,运用数理统计方法分析了春季极端干旱空间分布特征和时间变化规律以及大气环流、海温对LCDD的影响。结果表明:松嫩平原地区春季极端干旱总体呈减轻趋势,变化速率为-1.2 d·10 a^(-1),年际间振荡较强,年代际变化总体呈下降态势,1960s最高,2000s最低,2010s小幅回升;松嫩平原春季极端干旱在1971年发生突变,存在3个主周期,即28、14、6 a;空间上呈西多东少分布,高值区位于松嫩平原西部;前冬11月—3月西太平洋副高面积指数、东大西洋-西俄罗斯遥相关型指数、印缅槽强度指数、北美大西洋副高面积指数、850 hPa西太平洋信风指数、北美区极涡强度指数等6个大气环流主导因子对LCDD影响极显著(P<0.01);黑潮区海温指数、亲潮区海温指数、尼诺4区海表温度距平指数和西风漂流区海温指数等4个海温主导因子对LCDD影响极显著(P<0.01)。LCDD能够表征松嫩平原极端干旱变化规律,前期大气环流因子和海温因子可作为其预测信号。
Based on the daily precipitation data from March to May at 32 weather stations in the Songnen Plain of Heilongjiang Province from 1961 to 2021 and the atmospheric circulation and sea temperature index data during the same period,the longest consecutive number of days without precipitation(LCDD) was adopted as an indicator of extreme drought in spring.Mathematical statistics methods were used to analyze the spatial distribution characteristics and temporal changes of extreme drought in spring,as well as the effects of atmospheric circulation and sea temperature on LCDD.The results showed that the spring extreme drought in Songnen Plain had a decreasing trend,LCDD changed at a rate of-1.2 d·10a^(-1),and the interannual oscillation was strong.The interdecadal change showed a decreasing trend in general,the highest in the 1960s,the lowest in the 2000s,and a slight rise in the 2010s.The spring extreme drought in Songnen Plain mutated in 1971,with a total of three main cycles of 28 a,14 a and 6 a.The spatial distribution of LCDD was more in the west and less in the east,with the high value located in the west of Songnen Plain.From November to March,the Western Pacific Subtropical High Area Index,East Atlantic-West Russia Pattern,the India-Burma Trough Intensity Index,the North American-Atlantic Subtropical High Area Index,the West Pacific 850 hPa Trade Wind Index,and the North American Polar Vortex Intensity Index had significant effects on LCDD(P<0.01).Four leading SST factors,namely,the Kuroshio Current SST Index,the Oyashio Current SST Index,the NINO 4 Sea Surface Temperature Anomaly(SSTA) Index and the West Wind Drift Current SST Index had significant effects(P<0.01).LCDD can be used to characterize the variation of extreme drought in Songnen Plain,and the atmospheric circulation and SST factors in the early period can be used as prediction signals.
作者
韩俊杰
姜丽霞
田宝星
初征
班晋
巩敬锦
于成龙
石红艳
嵇志华
庞云超
HAN Junjie;JIANG Lixia;TIAN Baoxing;CHU Zheng;BAN Jin;GONG Jingjin;YU Chenglong;SHI Hongyan;JI Zhihua;PANG Yunchao(Heilongjiang Province Institute of Meteorological Science,Harbin,Heilongjiang 150030,China;Heilongjiang Climate Center,Harbin,Heilongjiang 150030,China;Shuangyashan Meteorological Bureau,Shuangyashan,Heilongjiang 155100,China;Heilongjiang Meteorological Data Center,Harbin,Heilongjiang 150030,China)
出处
《干旱地区农业研究》
CSCD
北大核心
2024年第5期263-270,共8页
Agricultural Research in the Arid Areas
基金
黑龙江省自然科学基金(LH2022D024)
中国气象局创新发展专项(CXFZ2022J054)
中国气象局东北地区生态气象创新开放实验室项目(stqx201901)
东北区域气象中心科技创新联合攻关项目(2019QYLH3)
黑龙江省气象局科技创新发展项目(HQ2023018)。
