摘要
目的分析2008—2021年广州市艾滋病流行特征及趋势,为精准高效防控措施的制定提供科学依据。方法从中国疾病预防控制信息系统获取2008—2021年广州市新报告HIV/AIDS病例信息以及广州市人口信息,计算总体、不同性别、各年龄组和城乡的发病率。采用Joinpoint回归分析建立回归模型,分析广州市的艾滋病流行趋势。结果2008—2021年广州市累计报告HIV/AIDS病例16280例,年平均发病率8.66/10万。男女病例数之比为6.27∶1,发病率男性高于女性(χ^(2)=7388.534,P<0.001)。Joinpoint回归分析结果显示,2008—2015年发病率逐年上升(APC=20.87%,95%CI:17.18%~24.67%),2015—2018年无明显变化趋势(APC=0.26%,95%CI:-13.58%~16.32%),2018—2021年呈下降趋势(APC=-8.58%,95%CI:-14.94%~-1.75%)。中、青年人群(20~59岁)是艾滋病高发群体,累计报告14530例,占全部病例的89.25%。各年龄组发病率在经历长期上升后,分别从2015、2016和2017年起呈下降趋势。城市与农村报告病例数之比为14.07∶1,城市发病率高于农村(χ^(2)=842.866,P<0.001),农村发病率持续上升(APC=16.90%,95%CI:13.67%~20.22%),有赶超城市的趋势。结论2008—2021年广州市艾滋病发病率呈下降趋势,但仍高于全国平均水平。防控形势依旧严峻,应高度关注高危人群和农村地区,提高居民自愿检测意识,并确保能够及时自检,尽早知晓感染情况,从而对进一步控制广州市艾滋病的流行起到促进作用。
Objective To analyze the epidemic features and trends of HIV/AIDS in Guangzhou City during 2008-2021,and to provide a scientific basis for formulating precise and high-efficient prevention and control measures.Methods The information about newly reported HIV/AIDS cases and population in Guangzhou from 2008 to 2021 was obtained from the China Information System for Disease Control and Prevention,and the incidence rates of HIV/AIDS in total population,dfferent genders,age groups and urban and rural areas were calculated.Joinpoint regression analysis was used to establish a regression model to analyze the trend in the HIV/AIDS epidemic in Guangzhou City.Results A total of 16,280 HIV/AIDS cases were reported in Guangzhou City from 2008 to 2021,with the annual average incidence rate of 8.66/100,000.The ratio of male to female cases was 6.27:1,and the incidence rate was higher in males than in females(X?=7,388.534,P<0.001).Joinpoint regression analysis revealed that the incidence rates increased annually from 2008 to 2015(APC=20.87%,95%CI:17.18%-24.67%),but showed no significant changing trend from 2015 to 2018(APC=0.26%,95%CI:-13.58%-16.32%)and a downward trend from 2018 to 2021(APC=-8.58%,95%Cl:-14.94%--1.75%).The middle-aged and young(20-59 years old)were the highest incidence group for HIV/AIDS,with a total of 14,530 cases cumulatively reported,accounting for 89.25%of all cases.After a long-term increase,the incidence rates of HIV/AIDS in all age groups showed a downward trend from 2015,2016 and 2017 respectively.The ratio of reported cases in the urban and rural areas was 14.07:1,and the incidence rate was higher in the urban areas than in the rural areas(X2=842.866,P<0.001).The incidence rate in the rural areas continued to rise(APC=16.90%,95%CI:13.67%-20.22%),and had a tendency to surpass the incidence rate in the urban areas.Conclusion The incidence rates of HIV/AIDS in Guangzhou City during 2008-2021 showed downward trends,but were still higher than the national average level.The prevention and control situation is still grim,and hence it is necessary to pay high attention to high-risk groups and the rural areas,raise the residents'awareness of voluntary testing,and ensure timely self-testing to know the infection situation as soon as possible so as to play a role in promoting further control the epidemic of HIV/AIDS in Guangzhou City.
作者
李澄宇
董智强
胡文穗
刘伟
LI Chengyu;DONG Zhiqiang;HU Wensui;LIU Wei(School of Public Health,Guangzhou Medical University,Guangzhou,Guangdong 511436,China;Guangzhou Municipal Center for Disease Control and Prevention,Guangzhou,Guangdong 510440,China)
出处
《实用预防医学》
CAS
2024年第8期925-929,共5页
Practical Preventive Medicine
基金
广州市重点实验室基础研究计划项目(202102100001)
广州市科技计划项目(202201010800,202102080260)。
关键词
艾滋病
流行趋势
年度变化百分比
Joinpoint回归分析
acquired immunodeficiency syndrome
epidemic trend
annual percent change
Joinpoint regression analysis
