摘要
目的分析亚洲主要国家中枢神经系统(CNS)恶性肿瘤的疾病负担,预测中国CNS恶性肿瘤未来流行趋势。方法基于2019年全球疾病负担研究数据,收集全球及亚洲主要国家的CNS恶性肿瘤疾病负担数据,分析年份、社会人口指数对CNS恶性肿瘤发病、患病、失能调整生命年(DALYs)、死亡等指标的变化趋势,采用估计年百分比变化(EAPC)及其95%置信区间(CI)描述标化率的趋势。分析中国2019年不同性别、年龄组CNS恶性肿瘤疾病负担,采用NORPRED模型预测2020年-2044年中国CNS恶性肿瘤发病和死亡情况。结果亚洲主要国家中,日本疾病负担最重,标化发病率、患病率、DALYs率和死亡率的EAPC分别为:2.28%(95%CI:1.94%~2.62%),2.65%(95%CI:2.24%~3.06%),1.02%(95%CI:0.87%~1.18%)和1.46%(95%CI:1.29%~1.64%)。1990年-2019年,中国CNS恶性肿瘤的标化发病率从4.45/10万上升至5.69/10万,标化患病率从8.15/10万上升至22.58/10万,标化DALYs率从161.29/10万下降至126.24/10万,标化死亡率从3.87/10万下降至3.50/10万。2019年,中国女性CNS恶性肿瘤发病率、患病率高于男性,男性死亡率高于女性,DALYs率两者差别不大。NORDPRED模型预测结果显示,中国CNS恶性肿瘤标化发病率在2020年-2044年呈连续上升趋势,预计增长26.65%,标化死亡率将有所下降,预计下降9.14%。结论相较于韩国和日本,中国CNS恶性肿瘤疾病负担虽有所改善,但在全球仍处于较高水平。85岁以上老年人疾病负担最重,尤其是男性,需重点关注。
Objective To analyze the disease burden of central nervous system(CNS)malignancies in major Asian countries,and to predict the future development trend of CNS malignancies in China.Methods Based on the data of Global Burden of Disease Study in 2019,the data of the disease burden of CNS malignancies in the world and major Asian countries were collected to describe the changing trends of CNS malignancies in terms of incidence rate,prevalence,disability-adjusted life years(DALYs),and death based on year and social-demographic index(SDI),and estimated annual percentage change(EAPC)and its 95%confidence interval(CI)were used to assess the changing trend of age-standardized rate.The disease burden of CNS malignancies in China was analyzed for different sex and age groups in 2019,and the NORPRED model was used to predict the incidence rate and death of CNS malignancies in China in 2020-2044.Results Among the major Asian countries,Japan had the heaviest disease burden,with an EAPC of 2.28%(95%CI:1.94%-2.62%)for age-standardized incidence rate(ASIR),2.65%(95%CI:2.24%-3.06%)for age-standardized prevalence rate(ASPR),1.02%(95%CI:0.87%-1.18%)for age-standardized DALYs rate,and 1.46%(95%CI:1.29%-1.64%)for age-standardized mortality rate(ASMR).In 1990-2019,the ASIR of CNS malignancies in China increased from 4.45/100000 to 5.69/100000,the ASPR increased from 8.15/100000 to 22.58/100000,the age-standardized DALYs rate decreased from 161.29/100000 to 126.24/100000,and the ASMR decreased from 3.87/100000 to 3.5/100000.In 2019,Chinese women showed higher incidence rate and prevalence rate of CNS malignancies than men,and men showed a higher age-specific mortality rate than women;there was no significant difference in age-specific DALYs rate between men and women.In addition,the NORDPRED model showed that the ASIR of CNS malignancies in China might continue to rise in 2020-2044,with an estimated increase rate of 26.65%,and there might be a certain reduction in ASMR,with an estimated reduction rate of 9.14%.Conclusions Compared with Republic of Korea and Japan,China has achieved certain improvement in the disease burden of CNS malignancies,which still remains at a high level in the world.Elderly individuals aged 85 years or older tend to have the heaviest disease burden,especially male individuals,which should be taken seriously in clinical practice.
作者
葛俊苗
孙季冬
张昊阜子
葛俊丽
岳康异
蒋晓帆
罗鹏
GE Junmiao;SUN Jidong;ZHANG Haofuzi;GE Junli;YUE Kangyi;JIANG Xiaofan;LUO Peng(Department of Neurosurgery,The First Affiliated Hospital of Air Force Medical University,Xi’an,Shaanxi 710032,China;Department of Obstetrics and Gynecology,The First Affiliated Hospital of Air Force Medical University,Xi’an,Shaanxi 710032,China)
出处
《国际神经病学神经外科学杂志》
2024年第5期83-90,共8页
Journal of International Neurology and Neurosurgery
基金
国家自然科学基金项目(82171458、82171363)。
关键词
中枢神经系统恶性肿瘤
发病率
患病率
死亡率
失能调整生命年
疾病负担
预测
central nervous system malignancies
incidence rate
prevalence rate
mortality rate
disability-adjusted life years
disease burden
predictions
