摘要
【目的】为进一步提升暴雨预报预警服务的精细化水平,筑牢气象防灾减灾第一道防线。【方法】利用黔西南州1991-2023年夏季8个国家站逐日降水资料和2014-2023年夏季170个区域站逐日降水资料,采用趋势分析、Mann-Kendall检验、滑动T检验和Morlet小波分析方法,统计分析了黔西南州夏季暴雨日数气候变化特征。【结果】(1)夏季黔西南州区域站6月平均暴雨日数大值区分布在州北部,7月主要出现在兴义,8月分布在册亨大部、安龙东部、兴义南部,56.2%的夏季暴雨集中在海拔高度1000~1500 m之间的地区。(2)黔西南州国家站夏季年平均出现2.9 d暴雨天气,近10 a黔西南州夏季区域站暴雨总日数为360 d,共有4638站次;夏季平均暴雨日数呈“V”型分布,6月最多,7月最少;暴雨站次呈逐月递减分布。(3)夏季发生局地性暴雨比区域性暴雨多,近10 a年最长连续暴雨日为8 d。(4)夏季国家站暴雨日数未发生突变,暴雨日数存在中心值为14 a的长期周期振荡和中心值4 a、10 a的较短期周期振荡。(5)夏季国家站总雨量与同期暴雨以上总雨量相关系数为0.83,夏季暴雨对夏季总降水量贡献逐年降低,平均贡献率为29.2%。【结论】分析得出黔西南州夏季暴雨日数时空分布特征,为更好开展黔西南州暴雨预报预警服务工作提供参考。
In order to further improve the refinement level of rainstorm forecasting and early warning services,and strengthen the role of meteorological disaster prevention and mitigation as the first line of defense,this paper analyzes the climate change characteristics of summer rainstorm days in Qianxinan Prefecture by means of trend analysis,Mann-Kendall test,sliding T test and Morlet wavelet analysis using the daily precipitation data of eight national stations in the summer of 1991-2023 and 170 regional stations in the summer of 2014-2023 in Qianxinan Prefecture.The results show that:(1)In summer,the maximum number of average rainstorm days in June at Qianxinan Prefecture Regional Station is distributed in the north of the prefecture,mainly in Xingyi in July,and in most of Ceheng,east of Anlong and south of Xingyi in August.56.2%of the summer rainstorm is concentrated in the area between 1,000 and 1,500 m above sea level.(2)The national station in Qianxinan Prefecture has an annual average of 2.9 days of rainstorm in summer.The total number of rainstorm days in summer at regional stations in Qianxinan Prefecture in recent 10 years is 360 days,with 4,638 stations/times in total.The average number of rainstorm days in summer presents a"V-shape"distribution,with the largest number in June and the smallest number in July.The number of rainstorm stations decreases month by month.(3)There are more localized rainstorm events than regional rainstorm events in summer,and the longest continuous rainstorm duration in recent 10 years is 8 days.(4)There is no abrupt change in the number of rainstorm days at the national stations in summer,but there are long-term periodic oscillations with a central value of 14 years and short-term periodic oscillations with a central value of 4 years and 10 years for the number of rainstorm days.(5)The correlation coefficient between the total rainfall of the national station in summer and the total rainfall above the rainstorm level in the same period is 0.83,and the contribution of the summer rainstorm to the total rainfall in summer decreases year by year,with an average contribution rate of 29.2%.Finally,the spatial and temporal distribution characteristics of summer rainstorm days in Qianxinan Prefecture are obtained,and this is a good a reference for better carrying out rainstorm forecasting and early warning services in Qianxinan Prefecture.
作者
杨茜
邹昌津
蒙仕红
郑周莹
陈星兆
杨春艳
YANG Qian;ZOU Changjin;MENG Shihong;ZHENG Zhouying;CHEN Xingzhao;YANG Chunyan(Ceheng Meteorological Station of Guizhou Province,Ceheng 552200,China;Qinglong Meteorological Station of Guizhou Province,Qinglong 552300,China;Anlong Meteorological Station of Guizhou Province,Anlong 552400,China;Meteorological Office of Qianxinan Bouyei and Miao Autonomous Prefecture of Guizhou Province,Xingyi 562400,China)
出处
《山地气象学报》
2024年第5期48-54,共7页
Journal of Mountain Meteorology
基金
贵州省科技计划项目(黔科合基础-ZK〔2023〕一般457)
贵州省气象局科研业务项目(黔气科登〔2022〕10-07)
黔西南州气象局科研项目(QXNZLKT-2024-041)。
关键词
夏季暴雨日数
空间分布
气候特征
小波分析
summer rainstorm days
spatial distribution
climatic characteristics
wavelet analysis
