摘要
【目的】分析铜仁日雨量、连续降水量、连续降水日数等3个降水评价指标的稳定性,并给出降水灾害的最优预警阈值。【方法】基于铜仁市10个国家级台站1991-2020年的逐日降水资料,计算GB/T 33669-2017排序法、水文排序法、10倍年数取值排序法等3种算法的极端降水指标阈值,并对3个降水评价指标致灾风险进行分析。【结果】(1)根据GB/T 33669-2017排序法得出的铜仁极端降水指标阈值明显大于该区域自然资源的承受能力,分年提取样本会漏掉许多重要信息。(2)根据水文排序法得出的极端降水指标阈值总体优于国标排序法,但仍有重要信息遗漏。(3)10倍年数排序法得出的极端降水指标阈值,既与自然资源承载能力较为匹配,又能避免重要信息的遗漏。【结论】用10倍年数基本资料排序法得出的极端降水阈值最优,可以优先推荐为铜仁降水监测指标的灾害预警阈值。
Based on the daily precipitation data of 10 national meteorological stations in Tongren City,Guizhou Province,from 1991 to 2020,the stability of three precipitation evaluation indicators,namely daily precipitation,continuous precipitation and continuous precipitation days,is analyzed,and the optimal early-warning threshold of precipitation disasters is proposed.The extreme precipitation index thresholds of the GB/T 33669-2017 ranking method,hydrological ranking method and 10-fold annual value ranking method are calculated,and the disaster risk caused by the three precipitation evaluation indexes was analyzed and discussed.The results show that:(1)According to the GB/T 33669-2017 ranking method,the threshold value of extreme precipitation index in Tongren is significantly greater than the bearing capacity of natural resources in the region,and many important information would be missed if samples were extracted by years.(2)The extreme precipitation index threshold that is obtained by the hydrological ranking method performs generally better than the national standard ranking method,but there is still important information missing.(3)The extreme precipitation index threshold obtained by the 10-fold annual ranking method not only matches the carrying capacity of natural resources,but also avoids the omission of important information.Comparatively,the extreme precipitation threshold from the 10-fold annual value ranking method is the best andcan be recommended as the disaster early warning threshold of Tongren precipitation monitoring index.
作者
谢仁波
何历洪
代瑞华
符晴
XIE Renbo;HE Lihong;DAI Ruihua;FU Qing(Yinjiang Meteorological Station of Guizhou Province,Yinjiang 555200,China;Tongren Meteorological Office of Guizhou Province,Bijiang 554300,China)
出处
《山地气象学报》
2024年第5期81-86,共6页
Journal of Mountain Meteorology
关键词
极端降水
排序方法
降水监测指标
风险预警
阈值
extreme precipitation
ranking method
precipitation monitoring index
risk early warning
threshold value
