摘要
碳收支核算与碳失衡风险识别有助于深入揭示人类活动对区域碳收支的影响机制与影响程度,对于开展区域差别化的碳治理、推动区域协同减排具有重要意义.首先构建了基于碳收支的区域碳失衡风险评价研究框架.其次,以河南省为例对栅格和县域尺度的碳收支进行了核算并探讨了其时空分布格局.最后利用区域碳失衡风险指数揭示了河南省碳失衡风险的时空演变特征.结果表明:①2001~2020年河南省碳排放量由2.32亿t增长到5.86亿t,空间上呈现出由市区中心向外围逐步降低的分布格局;碳吸收量由2001年的1.17亿t增长至2020年的1.53亿t,在空间上表现出“西高东低、南高北低”的分布特征;②河南省碳源/汇值呈现先上升后下降的变化特征,并于2013年达到峰值5.14,经济发达地区的碳源/汇值明显高于经济欠发达地区;碳收支转换态势区域差异明显,整体呈现出“失衡-中和-失衡”的变化态势;③河南省碳失衡风险逐步趋于稳定,2016~2020年期间碳失衡风险指数高于0.6的区县个数共计107个(占比68.2%),高碳失衡风险区由郑州都市圈沿主要交通线向外围扩张;④未来应结合不同区域的碳失衡风险等级,建立碳失衡风险约束下的国土空间优化及差异化治理策略,完善基于碳失衡风险评估的县域空间横向碳补偿机制,缓解区域碳失衡风险,推动区域协同减排/增汇和碳中和目标的实现.
Carbon budget accounting and identification of carbon imbalance risks contribute to revealing the impact mechanism and extent of human activity on the regional carbon budget.It is of great significance to conduct regional differentiated carbon governance and promote regional collaborative emission reduction.As a result,this study first constructed a research framework for regional carbon imbalance risk assessment based on carbon budget.Then,the carbon budget was calculated at a grid and county scale taking Henan Province as an example,and its spatio-temporal pattern was discussed.Finally,the regional carbon imbalance risk index was constructed to reveal the temporal and spatial evolution characteristics of carbon imbalance risk in Henan Province.The results showed:①From 2001 to 2020,the carbon emissions in Henan Province increased from 232 million tons to 586 million tons.Spatially,it exhibited a gradually decreasing distribution pattern from the central areas to the periphery of each city.Carbon absorption showed a slight fluctuating increase trend(117 million-153 million)with a distribution feature of“higher in the west,lower in the east;higher in the south,lower in the north.”②The carbon source/sink ratio in Henan Province showed a characteristic of rapid growth followed by a gradual decline,reaching a peak of 5.14 in 2013.The carbon source/sink value in economically developed areas was significantly higher than that in economically underdeveloped areas.The regional differences in carbon balance transformation were evident,showing an overall“imbalanceneutralization-imbalance”trend.③During the study period,carbon imbalance risks in Henan Province gradually stabilized,and the number of districts and counties with a carbon imbalance risk index higher than 0.6 was 107(68.2%)during 2016-2020.The high-risk areas of carbon imbalance mainly expanded from the Zhengzhou metropolitan area to the periphery along major transportation routes.④Future efforts should focus on establishing land spatial optimization and differentiated governance strategies,considering varying carbon imbalance risks across regions.This includes enhancing county-level cross-compensation mechanisms based on carbon imbalance risk assessments;mitigating regional carbon imbalances;and advancing regional collaborative emission reductions,carbon sequestration,and carbon neutrality goals.
作者
吉佳宇
谢志祥
赵荣钦
肖连刚
肖千虎
蔡辰
JI Jia-yu;XIE Zhi-xiang;ZHAO Rong-qin;XIAO Lian-gang;XIAO Qian-hu;CAI Chen(College of Surveying and Geo-Informatics,North China University of Water Resources and Electric Power,Zhengzhou 450045,China)
出处
《环境科学》
EI
CAS
CSCD
北大核心
2024年第11期6365-6377,共13页
Environmental Science
基金
国家社科基金重大项目(23&ZD099)。
关键词
碳收支
时空格局
转换态势
碳失衡风险
河南省
carbon budget
spatial-temporal pattern
conversion situation
risk of carbon imbalance
Henan Province
