摘要
本研究旨在分析中国不同流域土石坝溃坝事件与厄尔尼诺现象之间的关联性,并探讨厄尔尼诺对水库大坝安全运行的潜在影响。基于1957—2017年中国气象站点逐日降水数据,采用合成分析和交叉小波方法,分析不同流域内厄尔尼诺对极端降水时空分布特征的影响,进而建立土石坝溃坝事件与厄尔尼诺现象之间的相关性。结果表明:九大流域内溃坝事件与厄尔尼诺显著相关,其中海河流域内溃坝事件与厄尔尼诺当年关联性更强,而黄河、长江和东南诸河流域的溃坝事件则更多地受到厄尔尼诺次年的影响;在相关性方面,黄河、长江及海河流域的强降水指数与厄尔尼诺指数之间显著负相关,且厄尔尼诺指数的变化通常超前于强降水事件约1a。
This study aims to analyse the correlation between climate,dam failures,and the El Niño phenomenon in different river basins of China and to explore the potential impact of El Niño on the safe operation of reservoir dams.Based on daily precipitation data from 1957 to 2017 at meteorological stations in China,synthetic analysis and cross-wavelet methods were used to analyse the influence of El Niño on the spatial and temporal distribution characteristics of extreme precipitation in different river basins,and to establish the correlation between climate and dam failure events and the El Niño phenomenon.The results show that the dam failure events in the nine basins are significantly correlated with El Niño,among which the dam failure events in the Haihe River basin are strongly correlated with the current year of El Niño.In contrast,the dam failure events in the Yellow River,Yangtze River,and Southeast River basins are strongly affected by the El Niño of the subsequent year.A significant negative correlation exists between the heavy precipitation index and the ONI in the Yellow River,Yangtze River and Haihe River basins.The ONI,the change in the ONI,usually exceeds the heavy precipitation event by approximately 1 year.
作者
周宁
王芳
李铮
张铸
李宏恩
ZHOU Ning;WANG Fang;LI Zheng;ZHANG Zhu;LI Hongen(State Key Laboratory of Hydrology-Water Resources and Hydraulic Engineering,Nanjing Hydraulic Research Institute,Nanjing 210029,China)
出处
《水科学进展》
EI
CAS
CSCD
北大核心
2024年第5期689-699,共11页
Advances in Water Science
基金
国家重点研发计划资助项目(2022YFC3005403)
中央级公益性科研院所基本科研业务费专项资金资助项目(Y723007)。
关键词
溃坝事件
时空演化
极端降水
九大流域
厄尔尼诺
dam failures
spatial and temporal distribution
extreme precipitation
nine basins
El Niño
