摘要
烟草行业对市场有较为重要的影响,其销量的影响因素较多,同时烟草销售特征分析相关的研究较少。针对烟草销售的特征对销量的影响,该研究用随机森林模型进行分析,得到18个销售特征对销量是否增长的特征重要性分析。分析发现,在影响销量是否增长中:香烟的调拨价及其统一批发价、零售指导价格对销量具有较大重要性,分别为16.5%、15.6%、15.5%;而是否中支、雪茄、粗支烟的重要性很低接近0%。在销量最高的部分香烟中,调拨价主要集中在60元~130元。该研究结论有助于指导香烟在适宜的调拨价格区间(60~130)的香烟增加生产或投放而提高销量。
The tobacco industry is important in the market,and there are multiple factors that impact its sales.Meanwhile,there is limited research on the analysis of tobacco sales characteristics.In this study,a random forest model is used to analyze the impact of various sales characteristics on sales volume,and the feature importance analysis identifies 18 sales features.The analysis finds that among the characteristics determining sales growth,the allocation price and unified wholesale price of cigarettes,as well as the retail guidance price,are of significant importance,accounting for 16.5%,15.6%,and 15.5%respectively.However,the importance of factors such as whether it is a“mid-size”cigarette,cigar,or thick cigarette is found to be low,approaching 0%.Among the cigarettes with the highest sales,the allocation price is primarily concentrated in the range of 60 yuan-130 yuan.The conclusions of this study can guide the production or distribution of cigarettes within the appropriate allocation price range(60-130 yuan),thereby increasing sales.
作者
何雪峰
何厚华
杨蕾
余耀
蒋梦菲
张涛
HE Xue-feng;HE Hou-hua;YANG Lei;YU Yao;JIANG Meng-fei;ZHANG Tao(China Tobacco Yunnan Industrial Co.,Ltd.,Kunming 650024,China;College of Information Engineering,Kunming University,Kunming 650214,China;Key Laboratory of Data Governance and Intelligent Decision in Universities of Yunnan,Kunming 650214,China)
出处
《信息技术》
2024年第11期147-153,共7页
Information Technology
基金
国家自然科学基金项目(62066023)
云南省地方本科高校基础研究联合专项-面上项目(202101BA070001-149,2021-01BA070001-150)。
关键词
烟草销量
特征分析
调拨价
随机森林
分类与回归树
tobacco sales
feature analysis
internal transfer pricing
random forest
classification and regression trees
