摘要
目的 根据北京地区现有的结核病相关资料推算该地区人群的结核菌感染率年龄分布。方法 根据特定年份的结核菌感染率资料推算各年份结核菌年感染率 ,再结合相应年份的结核病疫情资料利用数学模型建立结核菌年感染率与结核病疫情之间的数量联系 ,然后根据所建立的数学模型推算其它年份的结核菌年感染率 ,最后计算出人群的结核菌感染率年龄分布。结果 结核菌年感染率与相应年份的对数肺结核新登记率呈线性相关关系 ,北京地区 1998、2 0 2 0和 2 0 4 0年的人群结核菌感染率分别是 4 4.2 3%、17.0 4 %和 5 .4 1%。结论 可以利用特定资料通过数学模型来推算和预测特定人群的结核菌感染年龄分布。
Objective To calculate and predict the age distribution of infection with M.tuberclsis among the population in Beijing on the basis of available tuberculosis epidemic data.Methods Firstly calculating the risk of tuberculous infection for specific years according to the data of tuberculous infection, secondly establishing the mathematical relationship between the risk of tuberculous infection and the correspandine epidemic situation data with a mathematical model, thirdly calculating the risk of tuberculous infection of the other years with the model, and finally calculating the age distribution of infection among the population in Beijing. Result There was a linear regression relationship between the risk of tuberculous infection and the logarithm of registry rate of new tuberculosis patients. The prevalence of tuberculous infection among the population of Beijing in 1998, 2020 and 2040 was 44.23%?17.04% and 5.41% respectively.Conclusion Age distribution of tuberculous infection of specific population could be calculated by a mathematical model on the basis of specific data.
出处
《中国防痨杂志》
CAS
北大核心
2002年第6期332-339,共8页
Chinese Journal of Antituberculosis
