摘要
社会各界对网络恐怖主义威胁的判断存在"威胁论"与"威胁夸大论"之争,前者认为网络恐怖主义是当下与未来的重大安全威胁;后者认为网络恐怖主义威胁被夸大了,迄今尚未出现大规模的网络恐怖袭击,政府在与恐怖势力的网络博弈中占据着明显的优势。如何看待这一争议并合理判断网络恐怖主义威胁态势?梳理"威胁论"和"威胁夸大论"叙事框架与立论依据,明确分歧所在;界定网络恐怖主义并归纳其类型,为后续讨论提供分析框架;广泛搜集有关网络恐怖主义的事实证据,全面刻画网络恐怖主义威胁的真实图景;基于客观图景评析争议,结论如下:"威胁论"夸大了"目的型网络恐怖主义"的威胁,网络恐怖主义威胁更多地表现为"工具型网络恐怖主义"威胁;"威胁夸大论"忽视了已经发生的网络恐怖案件事实,恐怖势力已具备一定的网络综合攻击能力;当前"工具型网络恐怖主义"活动非常活跃,未来"目的型网络恐怖主义"威胁可能突显。建议从广义视角理解网络恐怖主义,以事实为依据判断网络恐怖主义威胁,避免塑造歪曲的信息生态环境,误导社会认知与政府决策;既不能高估网络恐怖主义威胁,不计成本地投入防控,也不能低估其严峻趋势,应居安思危,并避免"思想上重视,行动上怠慢"的问题。
There are two divergent views on judging the threat of cyber-terrorism,that is,'threat theory'and'threat exaggeration'.The former argues that the threat of cyber-terrorism is serious for the time being and the future,while the latter states that the threat is exaggerated because large-scale cyber terrorist attacks have not happened yet,and in the cyber confrontation with terrorist organizations,governments have obvious advantages.How to view this controversy and judge the threat of cyber-terrorism reasonably?This paper aims to clarify the divergences between the'threat theory'and'threat exaggeration'by combing through their narrative framework and basis,provide a systematic analysis framework for the following discussions by defining cyber-terrorism and its categories,and then portray a true picture of the threat of cyber-terrorism with a comprehensive collection of facts.Based on the picture,conclusions are as follows:'Threat theory'exaggerates the threat of target-oriented cyber-terrorism,and cyber-terrorism is now more of a'tool'threat than an'objective'threat;'Threat exaggeration'ignores the fact that cyber-terrorism has already occurred,and terrorists already have a comprehensive ability to attack the Internet;The tool-oriented cyber-terrorism is very active at present,while the threat of target-oriented cyber-terrorism may be highlighted in the future.We suggest defining cyber terrorism in a broad sense,judging the threat of cyber-terrorism by facts,and avoiding a distorted information ecological environment that may mislead the social cognition and government decision.We should not overestimate the threat of cyber-terrorism and invest in prevention and control regardless of cost and underestimate its severity.We should be prepared for danger in times of safety,avoiding'thinking highly and acting negligently'.
出处
《公安学研究》
2018年第1期78-105,123,共29页
Journal of Public Security Science
基金
2015年度国家社科基金重大项目"当前我国反恐形势及对策研究"(15ZDA034)
