摘要
管道停输后再启动失败(即凝管)是含蜡原油管道安全运行的主要威胁.传统的管道再启动安全性评价采用确定性方法,未考虑相关参数随机波动的影响。本文基于可靠性思想,综合考虑运行参数、油品物性参数以及环境参数的不确定性,从管道再启动失效机理出发,建立了基于流量恢复的极限状态函数,并引入干涉原理对其进行求解;研究了输量、管径、土壤温度等随机参数均值变化对管道再启动失效概率的影响,实现了以概率形式定量描述管道再启动的安全性,提出了基于可靠性的输油温度和安全停输时间确定方法.
The restart failure of a pipeline after prolonged shutdown is the major threat to safe operation of waxy crude pipelines.The traditional approach to evaluation of pipeline restart safety is mainly based on the deterministic method,without considering the effects of random fluctuations of relevant parameters.In this paper,with the uncertainties of the operation parameters,properties of the crude oil as well as the environment parameters being considered,and with deeply understanding of the failure mechanism of the pipeline restart,a limit state function for the recovery of the flow rate is proposed.By introducing the interference theorem,the limit state function is solved accurately and efficiently.Further,the effects of mean values of the random parameters such as flow rate,pipe diameter,soil temperature on the failure probability of the pipeline restart are investigated.Therefore,a probability-based quantitative description for the restart safety of waxy crude pipelines is achieved,and reliability-based methods are developed to determine the crude oil transportation temperature and safety time of pipeline shutdown.
出处
《工程热物理学报》
EI
CAS
CSCD
北大核心
2014年第4期705-709,共5页
Journal of Engineering Thermophysics
基金
国家自然科学基金资助项目(No.51134006
No.51176204)
中国石油大学(北京)科研基金(No.2462013YXBS009)
关键词
含蜡原油
管道
可靠性
再启动
失效概率
waxy crude
pipeline
reliability
restart
failure probability
