摘要
随着生态足迹理论不断完善和发展,其在可持续发展研究领域不断得到拓展和深化。为了使评价结果更符合当地特点,以内蒙古为例,根据水热模型得到当地净初级生产力,用当地净初级生产力估测均衡因子和产量因子,并运用生态足迹模型对2005年和2010年的生态足迹、生态承载力以及生态赤字/盈余进行量化分析,得到内蒙古生态状况的时空变化趋势,并利用回归分析法对研究区12个盟市生态赤字变化的驱动因素进行分析。结果表明:在时间序列上,内蒙古的生态足迹的增长趋势大于生态承载力,整体上可持续性呈下降趋势;在空间格局上,各盟市的生态状况从东北向西南逐渐恶化,其中,鄂尔多斯市最差,2010年生态赤字达0.9 km2·人-1。工业强度、产业结构是影响当地生态的主要驱动因素。
Used to study the sustainable development in ecologic-economic system,ecological footprint has been an effective analysis tool since it was developed by Wackemagel and Ree in 1996. The research fields of regional sustainable development was increasingly expanded and studied in depth with the development of ecological footprints. The study area,the Inner Mongolia region( 97°12'- 126°04'E,37°24'- 53°23'N),is located in the north of China,and its total area is 1. 18 × 106km2. The northeast of the region is the Greater Higgnan Mountains,the Inner Mongolia plateau in the north is the biggest natural grassland in China,while Alashan plateau in the west is situated on the east of the arid region of northwest in China,so the ecological environment is not equally distributed, vulnerable, and complicated. Along with that the process of urbanization has been accelerated,the problem of ecological environment becomes serious day by day,that leads to unsustainable development of ecologic and economic. In this paper,starting with the introduction of theory development and the evaluating processing based on the traditional ecological footprints. In order to sum up different area types with different productivities,equivalence factor and production factor were in introduced to relate the average primary biomass productivities of different land types to the regional average primary biomass productivity of all land types in a given year. The equivalence factor and production factor directly affect the reliability of the result,based on the water-thermal model,a model is set up to estimate the NPP of Inner Mongolia,then the equivalence factor of six area types and the production factor of every county are calculated based on NPP,thirdly,the ecological deficit in Inner Mongolia in 2005 and 2010 is carried out based on the modified ecological footprint model,it shows that the ecological footprint's increasing is faster than the ecological carrying capacity's from 2005 to 2010,and there is significant difference in the different regions,especially Ordos City is the worst. Finally,we analyzed the driving factor of the ecological footprint change through linear regression analysis. The result shows that the sustainability in Inner Mongolia was decreasing as result of increase of the industrial intensity and unreasonable industrial structure.
出处
《干旱区研究》
CSCD
北大核心
2015年第4期784-790,共7页
Arid Zone Research
基金
国土资源部"全国国土规划项目"资助项目(1212011220097)
