摘要
基于近年来北京地区开展的人工增雨、防雹作业情况,利用农业气象灾情统计资料和经典的区域历史回归统计方法,对2004 2010年北京地区人工增雨效果和防雹经济效益进行了客观定量地评估。结果表明:(1)在5 9月的评估期,随着作业样本数逐年累加,人工增雨平均相对增雨率逐渐趋于稳定,并维持在20%左右;在所选目标区,连续7年的人工增雨作业累计增加降水量约417.8 mm,增雨效果显著。(2)年平均人工防雹经济效益约2.48亿元,多年平均防雹投入产出比为1∶16。人工防雹效益最高、最低年份分别在2009年和2005年,对应投入产出比分别为1∶27和1∶6。
Seeding effects investigation or evaluation is one of the most important parts of weather modification.It also acts as a crucial standard of assessing the scientific and technological level of weather modification activities,and plays an extremely important role in promoting the development of the subject. Combining the weather modification activities in Beijing region in recent years,the seeding effects of precipitation enhancement and the economic benefits of hail suppression from 2004 to 2010 was assessed,based on the classical method of historical regional regression and the agricultural disaster data collected around the whole region. The results show that:( 1) In the assessment period from May to September,the average ratio of precipitation enhancement efficiency tends to maintains about 20% following with the sample numbers accumulated year by year. In the target area selected,cloud seeding totally increased the precipitation amount by 417. 8 mm during the 7 years. The statistical seeding effect is very manifest in a high significance level.( 2) The estimated average annual economy benefit of hail suppression is nearly 248 million yuan. The average cost-benefit ratio is about 1∶ 16. The highest and the lowest economy benefit appeared in 2009 and 2005,with a corresponding cost-benefit ratio of 1∶ 27 and 1∶ 6,respectively. The methods studied for seeding effects evaluation and the results help to strengthen the scientific and technological base of the exploitation and utilization of cloud water resource in Beijing and its neighboring region,and firmly supporting the construction of local disaster prevention and mitigation projects as well.
出处
《高原气象》
CSCD
北大核心
2014年第4期1119-1130,共12页
Plateau Meteorology
基金
北京市优秀人才培养资助项目(2012D002034000001)
北京市气象局业务研发专项(BMOYWYF2012016)
关键词
人工增雨
人工防雹
效果评估
Precipitation enhancement
Hail suppression
Seeding effects
