摘要
以二十国集团成员国为例,采用面板向量自回归模型实证分析工业产业结构演进与贸易结构变化的内生动态影响机制。研究发现,G20各成员国工业产业结构演进与出口商品贸易结构变化内生关系显著,进口商品贸易结构变化对工业产业结构演进的作用明显;工业产业结构与贸易结构的内生影响效应持续时间较长且逐步减弱;出口和进口商品贸易结构变化受到外部因素干扰较多,而工业产业结构演进所受外部因素干扰较少。具有较大贸易逆差的国家(或地区)应正确认识贸易结构与贸易赤字之间的关系,重视进口对优化工业产业结构演进的促进作用,同时考虑工业产业和贸易结构调整政策的长期效应,从而更好地推动工业产业结构演进以及贸易结构的合理转型。
Taking Group Twenty countries for example,this paper used panel Vector Auto-regression model to empirically analyze the endogenous and dynamic impact system between the secondary industrial structure evolution and trade structure change.The results indicated that the endogenous relationships between the secondary industrial structure evolution and trade structure change of export commodity were significant.In addition,there was significant influence from trade structure change of import commodity on the secondary industrial structure evolution.The endogenous impact effects between the secondary industrial structure and trade structure decreased over a long time.Meanwhile,trade structure change of export and import commodity were interrupted by more external factors,but on the contrary,the interruption factors for the secondary industrial structure were few.These countries or regions having a large trade deficit should correctly understand the relationship between the trade structure and trade deficits,attaches great importance to the import of optimization of industrial structure evolution,and consider the long-term effects of the industrial and trade structure adjustment policy,to better promote industrial structure evolution and the reasonable transformation of trade structure.
作者
陈福中
樊亚宾
孙东升
Chen Fuzhong;Fan Yabin;Sun Dongsheng(School of International Trade and Economics,University of International Business and Economics,Beijing 100029,China;School of Economics,Party School of the Central Committee of C.P.C.(Chinese Academy of Governance),Beijing 100089,China;Business School,Hebei University of Economics and Business,Hebei Shijiazhuang 050061,China)
出处
《河北经贸大学学报》
CSSCI
北大核心
2019年第4期77-86,共10页
Journal of Hebei University of Economics and Business
基金
国家自然科学基金青年科学基金项目(71603049)
教育部人文社会科学青年基金项目(16YJC790006)
河北省社会科学基金项目(HB13JJ059)
