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基于贝叶斯-微分进化算法的小沿河应急水库(拟建)水质预测 被引量:1

WATER QUALITY PREDICTION ON XIAOYANHE RIVER EMERGENCY RESERVOIR (PROPOSED) BASED ON BAYESIAN-DIFFERENTIAL EVOLUTION ARITHMETIC
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摘要 为预测拟建小沿河应急水库蓄水后生态净化工程对水质的影响,构建河流污染物衰减模型和Streeter-Phelps模型对入库河道中高锰酸盐指数(COD_(Mn))、溶解氧(DO)、总磷(TP)以及氨氮(NH_3-N)进行预测,同时构建沃伦维德模型,预测库区TP及NH_3-N的浓度变化,并运用贝叶斯-微分进化算法得到最大可能的模型衰减系数。结果表明:应急水库生态治理工程对水质具有一定程度的提升,但是随着取水量的增大,小沿河应急水库对污染物的衰减作用逐渐减小,水生态平衡区富营养化程度由贫营养化程度转变成富营养化程度。在设计取水量50万m^3/d的条件下,生态净化工程对水质提升作用不明显。 In order to predict the effect of the ecological water conservancy project on water quality of Xiaoyanhe River emergency reservoir after water storage,the CODMn,DO,TP and NH3-N in the influx channel of the reservoir were forecasted by river pollutant attenuation model and Streeter-Phelps model,and the changes in concentration of TP and NH3-N in the reservoir were also forecasted by Vollenweide model,and the maximum possible model attenuation coefficient was calculated based on Bayesian-differential evolution arithmetic.The results showed that:the water quality could be improved by the ecological water conservancy project in the emergency reservoir,however,the attenuation of the pollutants by Xiaoyanhe River Reservoir decreased with the increase of water withdrawal,and the degree of eutrophication in water ecological balance area transformed from oligotrophication to hyper-eutrophication.The effect of the ecological purification project on the improvement of water quality was not obvious,with the designed water withdrawl of 500,000 m3/d.
作者 周涛 刘喜坤 刘亮 张双圣 强静 ZHOU Tao;LIU Xi-kun;LIU Liang;ZHANG Shuang-sheng;QIANG Jing(Water Conservancy Project Managing Department of Liushan in Xuzhou,Xuzhou 221018,China;Xuzhou City Water Resource Administrative Office,Xuzhou 221018,China;CCCC First Harbor Consultants Co.,Ltd,Tianjin 300222,China;School of Environment Science and Spatial Informatics,China University of Mining and Technology,Xuzhou 221116,China;School of Mathematics,China University of Mining and Technology,Xuzhou 221116,China)
出处 《环境工程》 CAS CSCD 北大核心 2019年第1期78-82,共5页 Environmental Engineering
基金 江苏省水利科技基金资助项目(2016056) 水体污染控制与治理科技重大专项基金资助项目(2015ZX07406005)
关键词 小沿河 水质模型 贝叶斯-微分进化算法 富营养化 Xiaoyanhe River water quality model Bayesian-differential evolution arithmetic eutrophication
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