摘要
目的分析佳木斯市流行性腮腺炎的流行特点,并对其发病趋势进行预测,为黑龙江省高寒地区采取有针对性的防控方法提供一定依据。方法通过传染病报告信息管理系统,收集佳木斯市2004-2017年报告的腮腺炎病例。选用描述流行病学方法,对其流行病学特点进行系统分析,并用自回归移动平均模型(autoregressive integrated moving average,ARIMA)对2018年腮腺炎的发病趋势进行预测。结果 2004-2017年佳木斯市腮腺炎共报告1 586例,年均发病率达到4. 52/10万,近三年腮腺炎发病率出现上升趋势;男女发病率比为1. 67∶1;病例主要集中在3～19岁,占全部病例的86. 32%,5～9岁,10～14岁儿童发病率较高;发病有明显的季节性,每年的4-7月和11-次年1月为发病高峰;城区年发病率高于外郊县市区; ARIMA(4,1,2)(2,0,0)_(12)模型为相对最佳模型,预测的2018年1～6月腮腺炎发病率和实际值相符,预测2018年7～12月发病率为0. 30/10万、0. 35/10万、0. 38/10万、0. 39/10万、0. 35/10万、0. 33/10万。结论 ARIMA模型可以较为准确地预测佳木斯市腮腺炎发病趋势,为有效降低儿童发病率,建议在儿童学龄前阶段(3～6岁)或小学阶段开展第二剂次的腮腺炎疫苗接种,同时应继续做好托幼机构等集体单位的疫情监测防控工作。
Objective To analyze the epidemiological characteristics of mumps in Jiamusi city,and predict the incidence trend,so as to provide evidence for taking targeted prevention and control measures in the cold areas in Heilongjiang Province.Methods The mumps cases were collected from China Information System for Disease Control and Prevention in Jiamusi city from 2004 to 2017.Descriptive epidemiologic method was used for analyzing the epidemic of mumps in Jiamusi city during 2004-2017,and the autoregressive integrated moving average(ARIMA)was used to forecast the incidence of mumps in 2018.Results A total of 1 586 cases of mumps were reported in Jiamusi city during 2004-2017,the average annual incidence rate was 4.52/100 000.The incidence of mumps increased year by year from 2015 to 2017.The ratio of male to female was 1.67∶1,those aged from 3 to 19 years accounted for 86.32%of the total cases,the higher incidence rates were found at the age of 5-9 and 10-14 years.The incidence of mumps presented obviously seasonal characteristics.Most cases concentrated from April to July and from November to January.The incidence of urban disease was higher than that of other counties;The established finally mode was ARIMA(4,1,2)(2,0,0)12 and the predicted incidence from January 2018 to June 2018 was consistent with the actual one.From July 2018 to December 2018,predictive mumps incidence were:0.30/100 000,0.35/100 000,0.38/100 000,0.39/100 000,0.35/100 000,0.33/100 000.Conclusions ARIMA model could predict the trend of mumps in Jiamusi city.To reduce the incidence of children,it is recommended to develop a second dose of mumps vaccine at the preschool age(3-6 years)or primary school;At the same time,surveillance and control should be continually strengthened in kindergartens and schools.
作者
陈欣
吴晓敏
包名家
李明春
王艳旭
王雷
薛晓峰
王鹏
王凯燕
冯丽影
CHEN Xin;WU Xiao-min;BAO Ming-jia;LI Ming-chun;WANG Yan-xu;WANG Lei;XUE Xiao-feng;WANG Peng;WANG Kai-yan;FENG Li-ying(Department of Immunization Programmes,Jiamusi Center for Disease Control and Prevention,Jiamusi,HeiLong-jiang 154000,China)
出处
《中华疾病控制杂志》
CAS
CSCD
北大核心
2019年第2期185-190,共6页
Chinese Journal of Disease Control & Prevention
关键词
流行性腮腺炎
流行特征
趋势预测
Mumps
Epidemiological characteristics
trend prediction
