摘要
产业结构变动是经济增长的内在需求和重要动力。本文以1993~2014年中国31个省(自治区、直辖市)的面板数据作为研究样本,从产业结构合理化和产业结构高级化两个角度考察中国产业结构的变动趋势及其区域差异,并借助面板平滑门限回归模型实证研究产业结构变动对经济增长的非线性影响机制。实证结果表明,产业结构合理化和产业结构高级化对经济增长的影响均存在显著的门限效应,并分别呈现“U”形和倒“U”形两种相反的非线性特征,产业结构高级化对经济增长的“升级效应”可以有效弥补产业结构布局失衡带来的“扭曲效应”。可见,将政策调节的力度控制在合理区间、确保政策措施和市场机制的协同并行,是实现经济稳步增长和可持续发展的重要保障。
The change of industrial structure is the inherent demand and driving force for economic growth. This paper takes the panel data of 31 provinces( municipalities and autonomous regions) in China from 1993 to 2014 as the research sample,from the rationalization and optimization indexes investigates the change laws and regional differences of China’ s industrial structure. Furthermore,this paper empirically studies the nonlinear effect of the rationalization and optimization of industrial structure on economic growth using panel smooth threshold regression model( PSTR). The results show that,the influence of the rationalization and optimization of industrial structure on economic growth exist a significant threshold effect and presents two opposite U-shaped nonlinear characteristic of U-shaped and inverted U-shaped. The upgrading effect of industrial structure to economic growth can effectively compensate for the "distortion effect" brought about by the imbalance of industrial structure layout. Therefore,controlling the intensity of policy adjustment in a reasonable range,and ensuring that policy measures and market mechanisms are coordinated and parallel,is an important guarantee for achieving economic growth.
出处
《数量经济研究》
CSSCI
2018年第2期1-19,共19页
The Journal of Quantitative Economics
基金
教育部哲学社会科学研究重大课题攻关项目“资本市场的系统性风险测度与防范体系构建研究”(17JZD016)
教育部人文社会科学重点研究基地重大项目“‘十三五’期间中国增长型经济波动态势与宏观调控模式研究”(16JJD790014)
国家社会科学基金项目“‘十三五’时期我国货币政策规则与货币政策调控机制研究”(15BJY174)
中央高校青年学术骨干支持计划“中国金融的周期波动特征及其宏观经济效应分析”(2015FRGG09)的联合资助
