摘要
基于混沌理论的局域法是目前较先进的预测技术,对于非线性、非平稳特征较强的城市日供水系统的预测,通常混沌局域法更适用。混沌局域法的日供水量预测,最重要的就是对历史信息的利用,即对邻近点的选择和利用,但在运用混沌局域法对城市日供水量预测时却鲜有人考虑邻近点选取问题,或仅考虑邻近点个数与邻近点位置中的一个,很少没有人将2种情况综合考虑的研究。据此,运用BIC信息准则和衰减系数相结合对相空间重构进行数据挖掘,优选混沌局域法的邻近点,并用该模型对实际水厂日供水量进行了预测。结果表明,运用该方法能显著提高日供水量预测精度,预测平均绝对误差仅为1.06%,说明该综合法是可行的。
Based on chaos theory local-region method is more advanced forecasting technology,for the prediction of urban daily water supply system with strong nonlinear and non-stationary characteristics,usually chaotic local method is more applicable.for chaos local-region method of daily water supply capacity prediction,most important is the use historical information,namely on adjacent points selection and use,but few people consider the adjacent points selection in the urban daily water supply forecast by using the method of local-region method,or only consider the number of adjacent points,or a position adjacent,no researcher combined the two cases.Accordingly,the combination method of the BIC information criterion and the attenuation coefficient mining data for phase space reconstruction,optimize adjacent points of the local-region method,and the model was used to predict the actual daily water supply of the water plant,the results show that the method can significantly improve the prediction accuracy of daily water supply,the average absolute error of the prediction is only 1.064%,it shows that the combination method is feasible.
出处
《土木建筑与环境工程》
CSCD
北大核心
2016年第S2期142-146,共5页
Journal of Civil,Architectural & Environment Engineering
基金
昆明理工大学2016年学生课外学术科技创新基金(2015YB025)
国家自然科学基金(51608242)
云南省人才培养计划项目(14118943)
关键词
混沌理论
邻近点
BIC信息准则
衰减系数
供水量预测
chaos
adjacent points
BIC Information criterion
attenuation coefficient
daily water supplies forecast
