摘要
根据城市燃气管网季节性负荷变化的特点,采用最优组合理论,将灰色GM(1,1)预测模型和人工神经网络模型的优点结合起来,建立了一个基于灰色神经网络的城市燃气管网季节性负荷预测模型,并提出了相应的求解方法,此模型能同时反映燃气负荷随时间的增长趋势和随不确定因素的波动特性。通过实例的计算结果表明:所建模型具有较高的收敛速度和预测精度,较强的适应性和灵活性,为城市燃气季节性用气负荷的预测提供理论分析依据。
According to specialty of seasonal gas load of the city networks, a forecast model of combined grey model GM (1,1) and artificial neural networks model (ANN) has been formed. It can express both characteristics of increase trend of time series and fluctuation from indefinite factors. The results through actual example show that the built model is of better convergence on computation and forecast preciseness, better applicability and flexibility than those of other models.
出处
《煤气与热力》
2003年第3期131-133,151,共4页
Gas & Heat
基金
黑龙江省博士后基金资助项目(LRB-KY01026)
