摘要
对通航河流上的大型桥梁和船舶采用风险分析是非常必要的,而无论采用何种评估方法,首先必须确定船撞桥这一随机现象的数学模型和碰撞概率.对我国内河船舶流量较大的南京长江大桥的调研数据做出分析,并确定其适合的碰撞数学模型和碰撞概率公式,进而算出碰撞影响系数.研究表明,船舶通过桥梁时的航迹分布可以用Gauss分布来描述,船撞桥频率可以用单位时间的船舶流量、碰撞影响系数以及位于可能碰撞航道上的船舶碰撞概率的乘积求得.碰撞影响系数可以依据已有的事故统计数据分析获得.
In order to analyse the risks of ship collisions with bridges, a mathematical model has been established to assess the probability of ship impacts against bridges with the collision probability and influence factor of the Nanjing Bridge over the Yongzi River as the background information. The results of analysis show that the course of a ship to go under a bridge can be expressed by the Gauss distribution, and can be calculated by the product of ship flux in unit time, the influence factor of impact and the probability of a ship collision with bridge if the ship is in a collision course.The influnce factor of impact can be analyzed according to data of accidents.
出处
《哈尔滨工程大学学报》
EI
CAS
CSCD
2003年第1期23-25,29,共4页
Journal of Harbin Engineering University
关键词
船撞桥
数学模型
碰撞频率
Gauss分布
碰撞影响系数
ship impacts against bridges
mathematical model
collision probability
Gauss distribution
influence factor of impact
