摘要
介绍了农业生产的气候脆弱性概念和评估方案 ,并据此估算和分析了 1 990年和1 997年黄土高原地区 1 30个县市农业生产的气候脆弱性分布现状 ;然后利用IPCC推荐的最新GCM模拟结果确定了我国西北地区未来 2 0 1 0~ 2 0 50年气候变化情景 ,在现有和设定的社会经济发展情景下分析了黄土高原农业生产的气候脆弱性可能变化 ,并讨论了有关农业可持续发展对策。
Based on the introduction of the definition and assessment scheme for climate vulnerability of agro-production in the Loess Plateau, the present vulnerability analysis both in 1990 and 1997 are carried out for 130 counties in this region. In addition, under the projected climate change scenario and social economy development scenario for 2010~2050,the possible change of climate vulnerability of agro-production in future and some strategic measures-advices for the Loess Plateau have also been discussed.
出处
《气候与环境研究》
CSCD
2003年第1期91-100,共10页
Climatic and Environmental Research
基金
国家科技部社会公益研究专项资金项目"我国西北地区生态气候环境监测预测方法研究"第三课题资助