摘要
油气资源评价可以分为新区 (Frontier)、未成熟区 (Immature)和成熟区 (Mature)资源评价。油气资源评价流程可以分为大区域 (Tectono StratigraphicProvinces、Trend)盆地分析和盆地模拟研究、含油气系统和成藏组合区带 (Play)评价、有利成藏层系 (PlayFairway)和勘探目标圈闭 (Prospect)优选。油气资源评价的关键在于通过资料处理、专题分析和综合评价 ,建立地质—经济动态评价系统。应用蒙特卡罗模拟技术评价油气田规模分布、发现概率和商业价值。通过逐级风险评价 ,优选勘探机会和勘探目标。地质评价不仅要建立概念和模型 ,更重要的是提高模型的预测能力。油气资源经济评价以静态评价和动态评价的有关经济指标衡量勘探开发目标。静态评价的经济指标主要是净利润、最大现金流出和投资回收期。动态评价指标包括净现值和折现现金流。在论述西方油公司资源评价方法的基础上 。
The global exploration phases can be classified into the frontiers,immature and mature regions.The resources assessment will follow some steps:①basin analysis based on tectono_stratigraphic provinces and trend;②petroleum system studies and play evaluation;③play fairway and prospect screening and ranking.The key of the resources assessment is to establish a dynamic geo_economic evaluation system by data processing,detailed and thorough studies to find the scale and location of exploration target,the finding risks,and the commercial value.To pick out the favorable prospects depends heavily on the establishment of a geological concept and modeling,and the prediction of the modeling.There are two sets of outputs for the resources assessment including static and dynamic indexes for benchmarking and screening.The static indexes include net profit,maximum exposure to risk,pay back period of the investment.And the dynamic economic indexes include the net present value and discounted cash flow.Based on the introduction of the resources assessment methods used by the Majors,the resources assessment methods carried out in Tarim Basin by ExxonMobil and in Changbei project of Ordos Basin by Shell are presented.There is a brief review on the Monte_Carlo simulation technology and the Duplo reservoir simulation method.
出处
《石油学报》
EI
CAS
CSCD
北大核心
2003年第1期9-14,共6页
Acta Petrolei Sinica
关键词
资源评价
经济评价
蒙特卡罗模拟
储层模拟
oil and gas resources assessment
economic evaluation
Monte-Carlo simulation
Duplo reservoir simulation
Tarim Basin
