摘要
在传统折现现金流法的基础上,采用蒙特卡罗方法,对某金矿项目前期投资决策涉及的4个关键不确定因素(资源量、投资、成本及金价)进行了分析,得出了项目的内部收益率、净现值和投资回收期的分布情况,表明该金矿项目有较好的抗风险能力。该分析方法对于解决复杂多因素影响下建设项目的前期投资决策问题有较好的参考价值。
Based on the the traditional discounted cash flow analysis method,the four key uncertain factors (resources,investment,cost and gold price)related to the decision-making of investment of a gold mining project are analyzed in detail by adopting the Monte Carlo method.The distribution of internal rate of return,net present value and pay back period show that the gold mining project has a good ability to re-sist risks.The analysis method of the paper has good application value to solve decision-making for the in-vestment of gold mining project under the influence of many complicated factors in the early stage.
出处
《现代矿业》
CAS
2016年第8期1-3,15,共4页
Modern Mining
关键词
蒙特卡罗方法
投资决策
内部收益率
净现值
投资回收期
Monte Carlo method
Decision-making of investment
Internal rate of return
Net present value
Pay back period
