摘要
本文运用系统动力学方法,通过对大兴安岭林业公司阿木尔林业局森林资源系统的整体分析,建立了由178个方程式描述的19阶系统的森林资源动态预测S.D.模型。运用该模型在微机上模拟了在6种模拟方案的情况下,该局森林资源恢复到火烧前状态所需的时间和1988～207O年森林资源面积、蓄积、森林复盖率、平均每公顷蓄积量的动态变化情况,并就此结果进行了分析与讨论,为森林资源系统动态行为的进一步研究开拓了思路。
S.D.model in this paper, with 178 statements equations and 19th-order, is established by using the System Dynamics method and based on a whole analysis of forest resources system of A MU Er Forestry Bureau in Da Xing An Ling Forestry Company. The simulation results of six kinds of simulation scheme have been obtained by using the S.D.model. The results tell us how long the period should be for the forest resources recovering to the original level before burning, and the annual dynamic changes of forest area, stand volume, forest coverage and average volume per hectare from 1988 to 2070. Then, an analysis and discussion on the results has teen given. This study points out a new way to further research on the dynamic action of forest resources information system.
出处
《北京林业大学学报》
CAS
CSCD
北大核心
1989年第2期47-54,共8页
Journal of Beijing Forestry University
关键词
阿木尔林业局
森林资源
动态变化
大兴安岭
预测
S.D.模型
Dynamic Prediction, Forest Resources, S.D.Model, Simulation Scheme, Feedback Circle, Dynamic Transfer, Dynamic Action
